Conflict and Forced Migration

Abstract

In this thesis, I aim to improve our understanding of two phenomena, the emergence of violent conflicts and forced migration. The first chapter describes the logic of economic investigation followed throughout the thesis. In the second chapter, I analyze the conflict-enhancing role of income inequality in South Mexico. Income inequality measured at the municipal level was significant in motivating people to support the rebellion in South Mexico. Consistently with the theoretical framework, an increase in income per capita can also strengthen the incentives of the rebel leader to organize an uprising. Such results qualify some policy recommendations usually formulated in post-conflict situations. In the third chapter I investigate forced migration resulting from climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is found to have significantly affected international migration through various channels, including through stronger economic incentives to migrate and higher level of urbanization. The phenomenon of environmental migration remains limited between 1960 and 2000 but according to our predictions, is likely to magnify in the coming decades. This definitely imposes serious challenges for policy makers. Based on a two-month fieldwork, the last chapter sheds a new light on the consequences of forced migration. I assess the impact of a mass influx of refugees on the welfare of the hosting population in Northwestern Tanzania. Contrary to common wisdom, massive refugee inflows have on aggregate a positive effect on the hosting economy. However, net gains are unevenly distributed among the local hosts, depending on their main occupation. Along with minimizing the negative externalities, improving the capabilities of the local people to cope with such a structural change, the presence of refugees could constitute a unique asset (rather than a burden) to break down underdevelopment traps.