Competitive balance measures and the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis in European football

Abstract

Competitive balance is an important issue in professional sport in general and European football in particular. However, competitive balance is difficult to quantify because competitiveness is multi-dimensional and particular sports are distinctive. We aim to identify the most appropriate index for a holistic view of competitive balance in European football. We use data from eight domestic European football leagues over a time span of 60 years. The indices we consider are specifically designed to capture competitiveness at different levels of performance and in this way reflect the peculiarities of European football leagues. Our findings support the longstanding uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. A bivariate index that captures competitiveness in the top K places is shown to have the highest association with attendance. A seasonal index of champions’ domination is also found to have a large association with attendance. Finally, ranking mobility is found to have a slightly higher association with attendance than seasonal performance. These results imply that sports policy makers should use these indices to assess strategic decisions that may influence competitive balance.