USING CHOICE SETS FOR ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION IN ROUTE CHOICE

Abstract

This article investigates the relationships between choice set types and analysis purpose, especially estimation and prediction. The choice set types considered are generated objective choice sets and observed subjective choice sets. While for estimation purposes subjective choice sets might be preferred, although objective choice sets might have benefits as well, objective choice sets appear to be most suitable for prediction purposes. Empirical analysis of choice sets for multi-modal inter-urban train trips shows clear distinction between choice models estimated using objective choice sets and using subjective choice sets. Applying these choice models for prediction shows that choice models based on subjective choice sets have a poorer performance when applied to objective sets than vice versa. As a result it is recommended to use objective choice sets for both estimation and prediction purposes.