[State of the world population, 1986].

Abstract

The majority of the world population will soon reside in urban areas. At present, over 40% of the world's people are urban, and 50% will be urban soon after the year 2000. The proportion urban in developed countries has exceeded 50% since the mid-20th century, and in developing countries this level will be reached in the 1st quarter of the next century. Developing countries in Asia and Africa have less than 30% of their population urban. While over 70% of Latin America's population is urban. Within the next 50 years, the predominantly rural character of the developing countries will disappear forever. Currently the majority of the world's urban population lives in developing countries. In 1970, 695 million urban dwellers were in developed countries vs. 666 million in developing countries, but by 1985, there were only 849 million urban dwellers in developed countries vs. 1164 million in developing countries. By the year 2025, there will be nearly 4 times as many urban dwellers in developing countries. An increasing proportion of the urban population will reside in the largest cities. Around 2025, almost 30% of the urban population in developing countries will live in cities of over 4 million. Around 2000 there will be 5 cities of 15 million or more, 3 of them in developing countries. The proportion of the 20 largest cities in developing countries will increase from 9 in 1970 to 16 in 2000. The close relationship between city size and economic development that existed until the recent past is disappearing. It is possible that the very largest cities will no longer be at the center of international political and economic networks. Many developing countries will have to develop plans for cities of sizes never imagined in the developed countries of today. High rates of population increase in the developing countries are an inseparable aspect of their urbanization. Growth of the urban population in developing countries will continue to be rapid until well into the 21st century. The world rate of urban growth will continue to be about 2.5%/year during the 1st quarter of sthe 21st century. The annual rate of urban growth is 3.5% in developing countries and is highest in Africa, especially West Africa where it reaches 6.5%/year. Despite migration to cities, the rural population in developing countries will continue to grow at a rate of about 1%/year through the end of the century. In many rural areas, population density is already very high, and continued growth will hamper efforts to reduce urban migration. In developing countries, the increase in the urban population is due more to natural increase than to migration.