{"title":"The Effect of Economic Uncertainty on the Housing Market Cycle","authors":"G. Aye, Matthew Clance, Rangan Gupta","doi":"10.1080/10835547.2019.12090024","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the spill over effect of economic uncertainty on the duration probability of housing market booms, busts and normal times among 12 OECD countries. Quarterly data from 1985 to 2012 were used. Based on a discrete-time duration (hazard) model, we find that the probability of exiting housing market busts increases with higher economic uncertainty in a statistically significant fashion. Uncertainty, however, is not found to influence the likelihood of leaving booms and normal times. Our results tend to suggest that housing serves as possible hedge against uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":35895,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/10835547.2019.12090024","citationCount":"25","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.2019.12090024","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 25
Abstract
This paper examines the spill over effect of economic uncertainty on the duration probability of housing market booms, busts and normal times among 12 OECD countries. Quarterly data from 1985 to 2012 were used. Based on a discrete-time duration (hazard) model, we find that the probability of exiting housing market busts increases with higher economic uncertainty in a statistically significant fashion. Uncertainty, however, is not found to influence the likelihood of leaving booms and normal times. Our results tend to suggest that housing serves as possible hedge against uncertainty.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management (JREPM) is a publication of the American Real Estate Society (ARES). Its purpose is to disseminate applied research on real estate investment and portfolio management.