Benchmark of eight commercial solutions for deterministic intra-day solar forecast

IF 1.9 Q3 PHYSICS, APPLIED
J. Lehmann, Christian Koessler, Lina Ruiz Gomez, Stijn Scheerlinck
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Continuous increase of the production of photovoltaic energy requires precise forecasting to ensure grid stability. This paper presents a detailed benchmark of eight commercial forecasting solutions for intra-day solar forecasts. The comparison was carried out on a period of six months, from November to May 2021, on seven different PV plants located in different countries of the northern hemisphere. Performance evaluation metrics MAE, RMSE and MBE are used in order to analyze the forecasting precision. It is shown that forecasting solar power remains challenging, as shown by the important dispersion between the actors that we have observed.
确定日内太阳预报的八个商业解决方案的基准
光伏发电量的持续增长需要精确的预测来保证电网的稳定。本文介绍了八种日间太阳预报商业方案的详细基准。从2021年11月到5月,对位于北半球不同国家的七个不同的光伏电站进行了为期六个月的比较。运用MAE、RMSE和MBE等绩效评价指标对预测精度进行分析。研究表明,预测太阳能发电仍然具有挑战性,正如我们所观察到的因素之间的重要分散所表明的那样。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
EPJ Photovoltaics
EPJ Photovoltaics PHYSICS, APPLIED-
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
4.00%
发文量
15
审稿时长
8 weeks
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