Economic feasibility analysis of small-scale aquaculture of the endemic snail Pomacea patula catemacensis (Baker 1922) from southeast Mexico

Abstract

The snail Pomacea patula catemacensis is an endemic mollusk from the southeast Gulf of Mexico, which is commercially exploited and in decline since 2010. This decline is associated with an increasing market demand and illegal capture. We designed a small-scale production system for P. p. catemacensis and determined its financial feasibility for a base scenario. We used information gathered from stakeholders and stochastic modeling to predict the impact of uncertain variables on the economic indicators to assess the financial viability under varying conditions. The small-scale intensive production system, designed to yield 3.9 tons/year of unshelled product, requires an investment of about US $65,000. The production unit was financially assessed using the Modified Internal Return Rate and The Net Present Value of cash flow, considering a 14% discount rate and a 7% reinvestment rate. We obtained a Net Present Value of $67,000 and a Modified Internal Return Rate of 20% for the base scenario, which indicates the viability of the project. A Monte Carlo simulation was run to assess the robustness of the project to variability of three parameters: labor cost, energy cost, and market price; with random and simultaneous variation, resulting in 95% probability of getting a Modified Internal Return Rate larger than the current interest rate (8%) and a low probability (2.8%) to be financially unviable. This production system is worthy of consideration as an option to reduce the fishing pressure on the tegogolo natural populations of the Catemaco Lake while satisfying the market demand.