Refined Mathematical Model of Economic Dynamics under High Inflation and Unstable Development

Abstract

Previously, the authors proposed two mathematical models that describe the dynamics of economic development rates and forecasting inflation rates. The events that took place after February 2022 introduced an element of significant turbulence into the processes of macroeconomic dynamics in Russia, which required some correction of the previous models. This is reflected in this article. The processes simulated on the basis of new models show that a significant reduction in the interest rate and a steady increase in the money supply are required to restore economic growth and reduce inflation in the medium term. It is shown that, in the current era of geopolitical changes and the collapse of many liberal market dogmas, the role of the state and planning in managing economic processes is increasing.