Extreme Liquidity Risk and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: Evidence from China*

Abstract

In this study, we investigate whether extreme liquidity risk is priced in the China A-shares market. We find that the market extreme liquidity risk significantly and negatively predicts market returns up to 9 months. In addition, the extreme liquidity risk beta of individual stocks commands a positive monthly premium of 0.75%. Moreover, our findings show that the extreme liquidity risk beta can subsume the tail risk beta in predicting stock returns. Furthermore, our findings show that both the potential selling pressures caused by insiders and by institutional investors significantly and positively influence an individual stock's extreme liquidity risk beta. We also find that the potential selling pressure component of the extreme liquidity risk beta significantly and positively predicts stock returns. Taken together, our evidence demonstrates that a stock's extreme liquidity risk beta provides a channel through which the stock's potential selling pressure caused by both insiders and institutional investors influences its expected return in the China A-shares market.