Spatial and temporal variation of Fagus sylvatica growth in marginal areas under progressive climate change

IF 2.7 3区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY
Nina Škrk Dolar , Edurne Martinez del Castillo , Roberto Serrano-Notivoli , Martín de Luis Arrillaga , Klemen Novak , Maks Merela , Katarina Čufar
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The escalating decline in growth trends of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) observed across its distribution area pose a major ecological and economic challenge for countries with a high proportion of beech, such as Slovenia. In this study, the effects of climate change were examined at a high-resolution scale, encompassing the large climatic, orographic, and ecological variability of beech forests in Slovenia. Using basal area increment data (BAI) from a tree-ring network (48 sites in Slovenia), modelled climate data, and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), we found an average growth decline of 11% between the 1953–1985 and 1986–2018 subperiods, affecting 90.5% of the forest stands. Based on climate data, we defined two contrasted marginal areas of beech presence (warm and cold) and analysed the growth changes over time. The warm marginal areas, which predominate near the geographical margin of beech distribution with a sub-Mediterranean climatic regime, were most affected by growth decline, threatening the survival of beech populations in the area. In contrast, cold marginal areas, mainly at high elevations in the Alps, where beech growth had previously been limited by low temperatures, turned out to be the only ones where growth of beech increased under prevailing warming conditions. Consequently, high elevation regions harbour climatic potential for increased beech growth performance, and may represent areas of future expansion of the species.

渐进式气候变化下边缘地区山毛榉生长的时空变化
欧洲山毛榉(Fagus sylvatica)在其分布区的生长趋势不断下降,这对斯洛文尼亚等山毛榉树比例较高的国家构成了重大的生态和经济挑战。在这项研究中,以高分辨率尺度研究了气候变化的影响,包括斯洛文尼亚山毛榉林的大气候、地形和生态变化。使用来自树木年轮网络(斯洛文尼亚48个地点)的基底面积增量数据(BAI)、模拟气候数据和广义线性混合模型(GLMM),我们发现1953年至1985年至1986年至2018年间的平均生长下降了11%,影响了90.5%的林分。根据气候数据,我们定义了山毛榉存在的两个对比边缘区域(温暖和寒冷),并分析了其随时间的生长变化。温暖的边缘地区主要位于山毛榉分布的地理边缘附近,属于亚地中海气候,受生长下降的影响最大,威胁到该地区山毛榉树种群的生存。相比之下,寒冷的边缘地区,主要是阿尔卑斯山的高海拔地区,那里的山毛榉生长以前受到低温的限制,结果证明,在普遍变暖的条件下,山毛榉树的生长是唯一增加的地区。因此,高海拔地区具有提高山毛榉生长性能的气候潜力,并可能代表该物种未来扩张的区域。
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来源期刊
Dendrochronologia
Dendrochronologia FORESTRY-GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
13.30%
发文量
82
审稿时长
22.8 weeks
期刊介绍: Dendrochronologia is a peer-reviewed international scholarly journal that presents high-quality research related to growth rings of woody plants, i.e., trees and shrubs, and the application of tree-ring studies. The areas covered by the journal include, but are not limited to: Archaeology Botany Climatology Ecology Forestry Geology Hydrology Original research articles, reviews, communications, technical notes and personal notes are considered for publication.
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