Temporal and spatial shifts in gun violence, before and after a historic police killing in Minneapolis

Abstract

Objective

To determine the impact of the police murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis, MN on firearm violence, and examine the spatial and social heterogeneity of the effect.

Methods

We analyzed a uniquely constructed panel dataset of Minneapolis Zip Code Tabulation Areas from 2016–2020 (n = 5742), consisting of Minnesota Hospital Association, Minneapolis Police Department, Minneapolis Public Schools, Census Bureau, and Minnesota Department of Natural Resources data. Interrupted time-series and random effects panel models were used to model the spatiotemporal effects of police killing event on the rate of firearm assault injuries.

Results

Findings reveal a rising and falling temporal pattern post-killing and a spatial pattern in which disadvantaged, historically Black communities near earlier sites of protest against police violence experienced the brunt of the post-killing increase in firearm assault injury. These effects remain after adjusting for changes in police activity and pandemic-related restrictions, indicating that rising violence was not a simple byproduct of changes in police behavior or COVID-19 response.

Conclusions

The results suggest that the increases in firearm violence as a result of police violence are disproportionately borne by underserved communities.