The seventh transport revolution and the new challenges for sustainable mobility

IF 2.7 Q1 GEOGRAPHY
Ennio Cascetta , Ilaria Henke
{"title":"The seventh transport revolution and the new challenges for sustainable mobility","authors":"Ennio Cascetta ,&nbsp;Ilaria Henke","doi":"10.1016/j.urbmob.2023.100059","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Over the course of history there have been several and significant changes in the methods and technologies used to move people and things. Innovations typically follow the distributive and social needs of their time but in some cases they drive or at least contribute to the social and economic evolution of human communities. The paper is based on the hypothesis that transport system innovations occur with different speeds and have impacts of different magnitude in different historical moments. Changes can thus be classified as revolutions or as evolutions depending on weather they (contribute to) change societal, economic and/or territorial systems in a relatively short time period or not. In this paper, analysing the history of humanity, six transport revolutions and several evolutions following over time have been identified, extending and re-defining the ideas of <span>Gilbert and Pearl (2010)</span>. We suggest that transportation systems are undergoing a seventh revolutionary phase due to the combined effects of three main drivers. These are innovations in energy sources and their transmission, developments of connected and autonomous vehicles for all transportation modes, and new smart mobility services. As for past revolutions it's impossible anticipate the extent of change it will bring about, both in the transportation market and in society at large. According to the “law of unintended consequences” of previous revolutions, the combined effects of the three drivers will likely further amplify the scope of possible changes. These changes can have positive, neutral or negative effects on short to medium term for environmental, social and economic sustainability of freights and passengers transportation. The paper starts with a synthetic description of previous transport revolutions, as proposed by the Authors. The main elements of the seventh transport revolution are then discussed together with some possible interactions among them. Finally the paper analyses some opportunities and risks connected to the ongoing innovation with respect to environmental, social ed economic sustainability. The perception of the current time as a revolutionary phase should change the approach of researchers and practitioners in the wide field of transportation system analysis with respect to the last evolutionary decades. Future research, in addition to sector specific evolutions, should focus on the actual holistic deployment of the seventh revolution trying to continuously update its combined effects and anticipate as much as possible its trajectory in order to reduce undesirable ones while boasting desirable ones. Future transport policies, especially in urban areas, will have to take into account the opportunities and risks deriving from the ongoing transport revolution as well as the resulting level of uncertainty.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100852,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Urban Mobility","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100059"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Urban Mobility","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667091723000158","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Over the course of history there have been several and significant changes in the methods and technologies used to move people and things. Innovations typically follow the distributive and social needs of their time but in some cases they drive or at least contribute to the social and economic evolution of human communities. The paper is based on the hypothesis that transport system innovations occur with different speeds and have impacts of different magnitude in different historical moments. Changes can thus be classified as revolutions or as evolutions depending on weather they (contribute to) change societal, economic and/or territorial systems in a relatively short time period or not. In this paper, analysing the history of humanity, six transport revolutions and several evolutions following over time have been identified, extending and re-defining the ideas of Gilbert and Pearl (2010). We suggest that transportation systems are undergoing a seventh revolutionary phase due to the combined effects of three main drivers. These are innovations in energy sources and their transmission, developments of connected and autonomous vehicles for all transportation modes, and new smart mobility services. As for past revolutions it's impossible anticipate the extent of change it will bring about, both in the transportation market and in society at large. According to the “law of unintended consequences” of previous revolutions, the combined effects of the three drivers will likely further amplify the scope of possible changes. These changes can have positive, neutral or negative effects on short to medium term for environmental, social and economic sustainability of freights and passengers transportation. The paper starts with a synthetic description of previous transport revolutions, as proposed by the Authors. The main elements of the seventh transport revolution are then discussed together with some possible interactions among them. Finally the paper analyses some opportunities and risks connected to the ongoing innovation with respect to environmental, social ed economic sustainability. The perception of the current time as a revolutionary phase should change the approach of researchers and practitioners in the wide field of transportation system analysis with respect to the last evolutionary decades. Future research, in addition to sector specific evolutions, should focus on the actual holistic deployment of the seventh revolution trying to continuously update its combined effects and anticipate as much as possible its trajectory in order to reduce undesirable ones while boasting desirable ones. Future transport policies, especially in urban areas, will have to take into account the opportunities and risks deriving from the ongoing transport revolution as well as the resulting level of uncertainty.

第七次交通革命和可持续交通的新挑战
在历史的进程中,用于移动人和物的方法和技术发生了几次重大变化。创新通常遵循其时代的分配和社会需求,但在某些情况下,它们推动或至少有助于人类社区的社会和经济发展。本文的假设是,交通系统创新以不同的速度发生,并在不同的历史时刻产生不同程度的影响。因此,变化可以被归类为革命或进化,这取决于它们是否在相对较短的时间内(有助于)改变社会、经济和/或领土系统。在本文中,通过对人类历史的分析,确定了六次运输革命和随后的几次演变,扩展并重新定义了Gilbert和Pearl(2010)的思想。我们认为,由于三个主要驱动因素的共同作用,交通系统正在经历第七个革命性阶段。这些都是能源及其传输的创新,适用于所有交通方式的联网和自动驾驶汽车的发展,以及新的智能移动服务。至于过去的革命,无论是在运输市场还是整个社会,都不可能预测它将带来的变化程度。根据前几次革命的“意外后果定律”,这三个驱动因素的综合作用可能会进一步扩大可能的变化范围。这些变化可能对货运和客运的环境、社会和经济可持续性的中短期产生积极、中性或负面影响。本文从作者提出的对以往运输革命的综合描述开始。然后讨论了第七次运输革命的主要要素,以及它们之间可能的相互作用。最后,本文从环境、社会和经济可持续性的角度分析了与持续创新相关的一些机遇和风险。将当前时代视为一个革命性的阶段,应该会改变研究人员和从业者在过去几十年的交通系统分析领域的方法。除了特定部门的演变外,未来的研究还应侧重于第七次革命的实际整体部署,试图不断更新其综合影响,并尽可能多地预测其轨迹,以减少不可取的影响,同时吹嘘可取的影响。未来的交通政策,特别是在城市地区,必须考虑到正在进行的交通革命带来的机遇和风险,以及由此产生的不确定性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信