The Causal Relationship between Unemployment and Inflation in G6 Countries

Abstract

Unemployment and inflation are major problems in macroeconomics. While solving the unemployment problem is a priority for some governments, for others it is bringing inflation under control. Unemployment and inflation surface are two undesirable problems for economies. Governments of countries implement monetary and fiscal policies suited to their aims to solve these problems. The Group 6 (G6) states are countries that have influence in steering the policies of international institutions. In this regard, this study investigated whether there is a relationship between the inflation rate and unemployment in nine randomly selected G6 countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Russian Federation, Turkey, and the United Kingdom), using data from the period 2009–2017 and applying a panel causality test. According to the Granger causality test, there is a unidirectional causality from inflation rate to unemployment rate. According to the results of the research, bringing inflation under control in these countries is becoming a prior goal. As a result of the policies to bring the inflation under control, the demand for goods and services in the economy decreases. As the aggregate demand for goods and services in the economy decreases, the demand for the workforce decreases as well. In macroeconomic policies there is a relationship between inflation and unemployment. While unemployment increases inflation decreases and while unemployment decreases inflation increases. Our research results also support this. When inflation is intended to be brought under control, it causes unemployment in the economy.