CLIMATIC CHANGES MAY NOT AFFECT THE DISTRIBUTION RANGE OF SOUTH AFRICAN ENDEMIC ENCEPHALARTOS SPECIES (CYCADALES)

Abstract

In recent decades climate change has emerged as one of the major forces driving biodiversity loss and species extinction. Cycads are highly threatened species and previous studies have revealed they are also being affected by climate change. In this study we tested the possible response to climate change of four rare cycad taxa (Encephalartos species) endemic to South Africa, displaying a low but reasonable number of natural occurrences. Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) was used in carrying out the predictions based on eight environmental variables. Our results revealed no range contraction but a slight spread in the distribution of these taxa. Temperature seasonality, vegetation types and landforms are by far the most important predictors of the species modelled. On the contrary, the mean annual temperature and precipitations showed very low contributions in all models. We conclude that climate change may not determine a reduction in range size of the Encephalartos species studied. Possible decline in South African cycads may still occur through anthropogenic influences.