The Spending and Consumption Response to A VAT Rate Increase

IF 1.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE
David B. Cashin, T. Unayama
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

This study estimates the effect of an increase in Japan’s value-added tax (VAT) rate on the timing of household expenditures and consumption, which do not necessarily coincide. The empirical analysis finds that spending on a wide range of durables and storables surged in the months prior to the tax rate increase, fell sharply upon implementation, but returned to their previous long-run levels within a few months. Nonstorable, nondurable expenditures increased slightly in the month prior to the tax rate increase but were otherwise unresponsive. A dynamic structural model of household consumption reveals that the observed spending responses were driven by stockpiling behavior, the insensitivity of durable and nondurable consumption to the tax rate increase, and strong complementarities between durables and nondurables. By mapping durable and storable expenditures into consumption, the model allows for a considerably more precise estimate of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption than the standard method, which focuses on nondurable spending only. The results, external validity checks, and marginal excess burden calculation suggest that anticipated changes in VAT rates have a large, though highly transitory, impact on household spending that generates miniscule efficiency costs.
增值税税率上调后的支出和消费反应
这项研究估计了日本增值税税率的提高对家庭支出和消费时间的影响,这并不一定一致。实证分析发现,在税率上调前的几个月,各种耐用和可储存品的支出激增,在实施后大幅下降,但在几个月内恢复到以前的长期水平。在税率上调前一个月,不可支付、不可持久的支出略有增加,但在其他方面没有反应。家庭消费的动态结构模型表明,观察到的支出反应是由囤积行为、耐用消费和非耐用消费对税率增长的不敏感以及耐用消费和不耐用消费之间的强大互补性驱动的。通过将耐用和可储存支出映射到消费中,该模型可以比只关注非耐用支出的标准方法更准确地估计消费替代的跨期弹性。结果、外部有效性检查和边际超额负担计算表明,增值税税率的预期变化对家庭支出产生了巨大但高度短暂的影响,从而产生了极小的效率成本。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
11.80%
发文量
38
期刊介绍: The goal of the National Tax Journal (NTJ) is to encourage and disseminate high quality original research on governmental tax and expenditure policies. Articles published in the regular March, June and September issues of the journal, as well as articles accepted for publication in special issues of the journal, are subject to professional peer review and include economic, theoretical, and empirical analyses of tax and expenditure issues with an emphasis on policy implications. The NTJ has been published quarterly since 1948 under the auspices of the National Tax Association (NTA). Most issues include an NTJ Forum, which consists of invited papers by leading scholars that examine in depth a single current tax or expenditure policy issue. The December issue is devoted to publishing papers presented at the NTA’s annual Spring Symposium; the articles in the December issue generally are not subject to peer review.
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