Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the future demographic crisis

Abstract

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 turned out to be the most significant military assault by one European nation on another since the Second World War. Due to this aggression, 3,821,049 refugees fled Ukraine in the first month since the invasion (UNHCR 2022a). The country has long suffered population decline since its independence in 1991. With ultra-low fertility rates and high death rates, Ukraine’s population decreased from its 1993 peak of 52,244,100 to 41,130,432 on February 1, 2022 – a 21.3 per cent drop. The Russian invasion is a demographic crisis that happened in the middle of a long-lasting larger demographic crisis. Through this invasion alone, Ukraine has lost an additional 7.3 per cent of its population in just the first month. The demographic crisis of the invasion is even murkier because population loss is highly concentrated in women and children. From day one of the invasion, men aged 18 to 60 were banned from leaving the country under martial law. A recent survey of 1,844 refugees conducted by the UNHCR shows that 88 per cent of respondents were women, and more than half traveled with children (UNHCR/REACH 2022). Although this survey was not necessarily population-representative, the UNHCR admitted that about ninety percent of all refugees are women and children in other interviews (UNHCR 2022b). Given 1.8 million or 24.1 per cent of all children who have crossed into neighboring countries as refugees, Ukraine has already lost an estimated 1.6 to 1.8 million, or 8.5 to 9.6 percent of, women aged 18 and older (UNICEF 2022). Some of these women (and children) will return to their homeland, but a recent study found that only about 30 per cent of refugees return to their country of origin (Constant, Culbertson, and Blake et al. 2021). If most of them do not return, this will create a significant gender and age imbalance in the Ukrainian population, especially in the current and future reproductive age group. The invasion also affects women who remain in Ukraine. It is known that males, whether soldiers or civilians, are more likely to be killed in direct warfare, but recent studies suggest that the overall excess mortality resulting from conflict is higher among women, mainly due to increased maternal mortality (Ghobarah, Huth, and Russett 2004; Plümper and Neumayer 2006; Urdal and Che 2013). It was already reported that more than 4,300 births have occurred in Ukraine during the invasion, and an estimated 80,000 women are expected to give birth in the next three months, many of whom will be without adequate access to maternal healthcare (even without the military attacking these healthcare facilities) (UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO, 2022). Additionally, 2.5 million children are internally displaced inside Ukraine and lack access to basic services and protection (UNICEF 2022). Coupled with the devastating economic and social situation, which also affects future fertility, it is almost sure that Europe’s largest humanitarian crisis will soon become an unprecedented demographic crisis in recent history. The number of refugees fleeing Ukraine and the death toll still growing means accurate numbers are not entirely known. Demographers and social scientists should closely review the direct demographic