Cyclical Globalization and China’s Strategic Options

Abstract

As the backdrop for contemporary international relations, globalization reflects the way economic and political power are distributed, and provides the grand context for China’s strategic planning. The history and logic of globalization have shown that underpinned by a system of nation-states, globalization proceeds according to an inescapable cyclical pattern. Globalization suffered major setbacks in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and is likely to further lose steam amid an evolving Covid-19 pandemic. A low-ebb phase of globalization will present an increasingly complicated strategic environment featuring intensifying great power rivalry, regionalized supply chains, and growing technology competition. Beijing remains determined to integrate further into the world, but to adapt to a new strategic environment, will vigorously implement the newly unveiled dual circulation strategy. As China sees it, despite all the major setbacks, globalization is an irreversible mega-trend but it will be driven by a new underlying logic.