Role of Variable Renewable Energy Penetration on Electricity Price and its Volatility across Independent System Operators in the United States

Data science in science Pub Date : 2021-11-10 DOI:10.1080/26941899.2022.2158145

Olukunle O. Owolabi, Toryn L. J. Schafer, Georgia E. Smits, Sanhita Sengupta, Sean E. Ryan, Lang Wang, D. Matteson, Mila Getmansky Sherman, D. Sunter

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

The U.S. electrical grid has undergone substantial transformation with increased penetration of wind and solar -- forms of variable renewable energy (VRE). Despite the benefits of VRE for decarbonization, it has garnered some controversy for inducing unwanted effects in regional electricity markets. In this study, the role of VRE penetration is examined on the system electricity price and price volatility based on hourly, real-time, historical data from six Independent System Operators (ISOs) in the U.S. using quantile and skew t-distribution regressions. After correcting for temporal effects, we found an increase in VRE penetration is associated with decrease in system electricity price in all ISOs studied. The increase in VRE penetration is associated with decrease in temporal price volatility in five out of six ISOs studied. The relationships are non-linear. These results are consistent with the modern portfolio theory where diverse volatile assets may lead to more stable and less risky portfolios.

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可变可再生能源渗透率对美国独立系统运营商电价及其波动性的影响

随着风能和太阳能（可变可再生能源的形式）的普及，美国电网发生了重大变革。尽管VRE对脱碳有好处，但它因在地区电力市场中引发不必要的影响而引起了一些争议。在本研究中，基于美国六家独立系统运营商（ISO）的每小时实时历史数据，使用分位数和偏斜t分布回归，检验了VRE渗透率对系统电价和价格波动的影响。在校正了时间效应后，我们发现在所有研究的ISO中，VRE渗透率的增加与系统电价的下降有关。在所研究的六个ISO中，有五个ISO的VRE渗透率的增加与时间价格波动性的降低有关。这些关系是非线性的。这些结果与现代投资组合理论相一致，即不同的波动性资产可能会导致更稳定、风险更小的投资组合。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Data science in science

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量