Climate change impact on potato (Solanum tuberosum) productivity and relative adaptation strategies

Abstract

WOFOST and InfoCrop crop growth simulation models were used to assess the impact of climate change on potato cultivars and to develop adaptation strategies for future climatic scenarios (2030, 2050 and 2080) under representative concentration pathways (RCP’s) 4.5 and 6.0 in Bihar. Potato cultivars belonging to late (Kufri Badshah), medium (Kufri Jyoti) and early (Kufri Pukhraj) maturity groups were selected. The simulated results revealed variations in potential productivity of potato under both RCP’s (4.5 & 6.0) with baseline yields of 43.80  t ha-1 for Kufri Badshah, 41.5  t ha-1 for Kufri Jyoti and 43.6  t ha-1 for Kufri Pukhraj. Under RCP 4.5, elevated concentration of CO2 projected to increase the productivity of Kufri Badshah, Kufri Jyoti, and Kufri Pukhraj. However, a decline in yield is expected when individual effect of temperature is considered for future climatic scenarios (2030, 2050 & 2080). However, these yield loss is negated when combined effect of CO2 and temperature is considered by 1.3, 0.7 and 0.3 % in 2030, by -0.4, -1.1 and -2.2 % in 2050 and by 3.5, 4.4 and 5.9 % in 2080, respectively. Likewise, for RCP 6.0, combined effect of CO2 and temperature offset the yield losses by 2.6, 2.4 and 2.3% in 2030, 2.1, 1.7 and 1.1 in 2050 and 1.1, -0.1 and -1.8 in 2080. In addition, selection of suitable cultivars, shifting the date of planting and proper irrigation and nitrogen management practices can counterbalance the yield losses.