A framework for assessing flood risk responses of a densely urbanized watershed, to support urban planning decisions

IF 2.7 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure Pub Date : 2023-02-08 DOI:10.1080/23789689.2023.2175139

Antonio Krishnamurti Beleño de Oliveira, Lucas Magalhães Carneiro Alves, Carolina Lopes Carvalho, A. Haddad, Paulo Canedo de Magalhães, M. Miguez

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Abstract

ABSTRACT This study aims to provide a framework to analyse future flood scenarios considering the effects of three main drivers of flood aggravation: climate change (rainfall intensification and sea level rise); unplanned urbanization; and poor maintenance of urban drainage systems. These stressors were chosen because they represent the aggravation of a natural phenomenon, the urban sprawl effects and the degradation of the drainage system. This analysis intends to make it clear what the main drivers of increasing risks are. Subsequently, a uchronic scenario is developed to analyse how adequate urban planning and infrastructure provision can contribute to a sustainable and resilient city regarding flood alleviation. The method is supported by hydrodynamic simulation. Results demonstrate that precarious urban growth without providing adequate infrastructure coverage can be even more dramatic than climate change. Otherwise, the uchronic scenario demonstrates the benefits of adequately planning cities in a sustainable way, giving lessons to this process.

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评估密集城市化流域洪水风险响应的框架，以支持城市规划决策

摘要本研究旨在提供一个分析未来洪水情景的框架，考虑洪水恶化的三个主要驱动因素的影响：气候变化（降雨加剧和海平面上升）；计划外城市化；城市排水系统维护不善。之所以选择这些压力源，是因为它们代表了自然现象的恶化、城市蔓延效应和排水系统的退化。这一分析旨在明确风险增加的主要驱动因素是什么。随后，开发了一个uchronic场景，以分析充分的城市规划和基础设施供应如何有助于建立一个可持续和有韧性的城市来缓解洪水。该方法得到了流体动力学模拟的支持。研究结果表明，如果没有提供足够的基础设施覆盖，不稳定的城市增长可能比气候变化更为剧烈。除此之外，uchronic情景展示了以可持续的方式充分规划城市的好处，为这一过程提供了教训。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure ENGINEERING, CIVIL-

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

10.20%

发文量

期刊介绍： Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure is an interdisciplinary journal that focuses on the sustainable development of resilient communities. Sustainability is defined in relation to the ability of infrastructure to address the needs of the present without sacrificing the ability of future generations to meet their needs. Resilience is considered in relation to both natural hazards (like earthquakes, tsunami, hurricanes, cyclones, tornado, flooding and drought) and anthropogenic hazards (like human errors and malevolent attacks.) Resilience is taken to depend both on the performance of the built and modified natural environment and on the contextual characteristics of social, economic and political institutions. Sustainability and resilience are considered both for physical and non-physical infrastructure.