Accurate depiction of uncertainty in ancient DNA research: The case of Neandertal ancestry in Africa

IF 1.6 2区 历史学 Q1 ANTHROPOLOGY
J. Hawks
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

All approaches to understanding the past must work with limited data. Like many other kinds of evidence of past peoples, the relation between ancient DNA and past events is intermediated by complex models that bear many assumptions, some untested or untestable. Statements about the past from this evidence are thus accompanied by uncertainty, some quantified and some unquantifiable. Accurate communication of this uncertainty is essential to effective cross-disciplinary collaboration and public understanding. Here I examine one well-studied case of ancient DNA inference: the inference of Neandertal ancestry for today’s African peoples. In this case study, scientific predictions about Neandertal introgression and the genetic variation of all living people both gave consistent predictions before the sequencing of Neandertal DNA. Still, at the time that a draft Neandertal genome was published, a myth became established among the public that today’s Africans are different from all other living humans in that they lack Neandertal ancestors. This contribution reviews public statements, press releases, and press accounts to understand the origin of this story and why it became widespread. I review the ultimate impact of this story and the path toward correcting it. In light of this example, I provide some guidelines on how to recognize accurate depiction of uncertainty and examples of how effective engagement with content experts in archaeology and biological anthropology can lead to stronger and more easily communicated scientific outcomes.
准确描述古代DNA研究中的不确定性:以非洲尼安德特人的祖先为例
所有理解过去的方法都必须使用有限的数据。就像许多其他类型的过去民族的证据一样,古代DNA和过去事件之间的关系是由复杂的模型来中介的,这些模型带有许多假设,有些是未经测试或不稳定的。因此,根据这些证据对过去的陈述伴随着不确定性,有些是量化的,有些是无法量化的。准确传达这种不确定性对于有效的跨学科合作和公众理解至关重要。在这里,我研究了一个经过充分研究的古代DNA推断案例:今天非洲民族的尼安德特人祖先推断。在这项案例研究中,在对尼安德特人DNA进行测序之前,关于尼安德特人基因渗入和所有活着的人的基因变异的科学预测都给出了一致的预测。尽管如此,在尼安德特人基因组草案发表时,公众中形成了一个神话,即今天的非洲人与所有其他在世的人类不同,因为他们缺乏尼安德特人的祖先。这篇文章回顾了公开声明、新闻稿和新闻报道,以了解这个故事的起源以及为什么它会广泛传播。我回顾了这个故事的最终影响以及纠正它的途径。根据这个例子,我提供了一些关于如何识别对不确定性的准确描述的指导方针,以及与考古学和生物人类学内容专家的有效接触如何能带来更强大、更容易沟通的科学成果的例子。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
8.30%
发文量
9
期刊介绍: The Journal of Social Archaeology is a fully peer reviewed international journal that promotes interdisciplinary research focused on social approaches in archaeology, opening up new debates and areas of exploration. It engages with and contributes to theoretical developments from other related disciplines such as feminism, queer theory, postcolonialism, social geography, literary theory, politics, anthropology, cognitive studies and behavioural science. It is explicitly global in outlook with temporal parameters from prehistory to recent periods. As well as promoting innovative social interpretations of the past, it also encourages an exploration of contemporary politics and heritage issues.
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