Existing population projections in Sri Lanka: comparative analysis of the accuracy

IF 0.5 Q3 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Sri Lanka Journal of Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-06-10 DOI:10.4038/SLJSS.V42I1.7856

Ranjith Premalal de Silva, W. D. Silva

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引用次数: 3

Abstract

The aim of the study is to evaluate the accuracy of past population projections with the comparison of observed figures in 2001 and 2012 population censuses in Sri Lanka. It has also compared the age-sex structures of the projections with the observed data. Out of the six population projections, four had been produced by three local forecasters: Soma De Silva, W. Indralal De Silva, A. T. P. L. Abeykoon and the other two by United Nations and, all of these projections had been examined. Standard variation of four projections produced before year 2000 show a percentage error ranging from 1.16 to 3.05 with 2001 observed figures and 3.33 to 5.21 with 2012 observed figures. Other two projections produced after year 2000 have a percentage error 1.59 and -3.09, respectively, when compared with 2012 observed figures. Accuracy of observed vs. projected population, projection errors and their measurement as well as age-sex structures of two projections against 2012 observed population have been examined. The examination of accuracy of the past projection results would lead to a generation of more reliable projections in future.

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斯里兰卡现有人口预测:准确性的比较分析

该研究的目的是通过比较斯里兰卡2001年和2012年人口普查的观测数字，评估过去人口预测的准确性。它还将预测的年龄-性别结构与观测数据进行了比较。在六个人口预测中，有四个是由三个当地预报员编制的：Soma De Silva、W.Indralal De Silva和A.T.P.L.Abeykoon，另外两个是由联合国编制的，所有这些预测都经过了审查。2000年以前编制的四项预测的标准变化显示，与2001年的观测数字相比，百分比误差在1.16至3.05之间，与2012年的观测数据相比，百分比偏差在3.33至5.21之间。与2012年观察到的数字相比，2000年之后产生的另外两个预测的百分比误差分别为1.59和-3.09。对2012年观测人口的观测与预测的准确性、预测误差及其测量以及两个预测的年龄-性别结构进行了检查。对过去预测结果的准确性进行检查将导致未来产生更可靠的预测。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Sri Lanka Journal of Social Sciences SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-

CiteScore

0.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Sri Lanka Journal of Social Sciences (SLJSS) was launched in 1978 as a premier social science journal in Sri Lanka. Published twice a year (in June and December), it entertains social science contributions in the form of Research articles, Review articles, Work-in-progress articles and Correspondence, and publishes invited Book Reviews. The journal publishes social science articles in Sinhala, Tamil and English languages, on topics relevant to Sri Lanka in particular and South Asia in general. All papers are subjected to double-blind peer-review.