Neo-deterministic seismic hazard maps of Kosovo

IF 2.4 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
E. Brandmayr, V. Franco, Romanelli Fabio, V. Gordana, Panza Giuliano Francesco
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Kosovo is one of the most seismically active regions in Europe, lying within the Alpine-Mediterranean tectonic belt. Historical records for the region show several catastrophic earthquakes with epicentral intensity IX (MCS). However, due to Kosovo’s high population density, high prevalence of traditional construction, and insufficient enforcement of building codes, Kosovo is vulnerable to earthquake damage. In this study, we present earthquake hazard maps for bedrock conditions in Kosovo based on the well-known Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) method. NDSHA relies upon the fundamental physics of wave generation and propagation in complex geologic structures to generate realistic time series, used as input for the computation of several ground motion parameters, integrating the available knowledge of seismic history, seismogenic zones and morphostructural nodes. In accordance with continuum mechanics, the tensor nature of earthquake ground motion is preserved, producing realistic signals using structural models obtained by tomographic inversion and earthquake source information readily available in literature. Our maps are generally consistent with the observed intensity IX (MCS) and suggest that, in some instances, intensity X could be reached.
科索沃新确定性地震灾害图
科索沃是欧洲地震最活跃的地区之一,位于阿尔卑斯-地中海构造带内。该地区的历史记录显示,发生了几次震中烈度为IX级的灾难性地震。然而,由于科索沃人口密度高,传统建筑盛行,建筑法规执行不力,科索沃很容易受到地震破坏。在这项研究中,我们基于著名的新确定性地震危险性评估(NDSHA)方法,绘制了科索沃基岩条件的地震危险性图。NDSHA依赖于复杂地质结构中波浪生成和传播的基本物理,生成真实的时间序列,用作计算几个地面运动参数的输入,整合地震历史、发震带和形态结构节点的现有知识。根据连续介质力学,地震地面运动的张量性质得到了保留,使用断层反演获得的结构模型和文献中现成的震源信息产生了真实的信号。我们的地图通常与观测到的强度IX(MCS)一致,并表明在某些情况下可以达到强度X。
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来源期刊
VIETNAM JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES
VIETNAM JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
3.60
自引率
20.00%
发文量
0
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