Adaptive model predictions of daily total column ozone over the Amazon Inter-Tropical Confluence Zone

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to broaden the scope of a recent adaptive model in order to obtain predictions of total column ozone (TCO) trends over the Amazon Inter-Tropical Confluence Zone (ITCZ). The adaptive model makes daily TCO predictions over the tropical equator-Andes-Region, relying on seasonal patterns and the solar cycle. This study uses daily observations of the sunspot number cycle, given by the World Data Center for the production, preservation and dissemination of the international sunspot number (Royal Observatory of Belgium), and satellite total-column ozone data, collected by NASA (January 1979 to April 2018), for two Colombian locations: one in and one adjacent to the ITCZ. The agreement between daily total-column predictions by the adaptive model and satellite observations is excellent. Daily averaged relative errors around of 3.7 % and 2.8 % for both locations are reported herein.