Numerical modelling of a flash-flood event at Peribán de Ramos, Michoacán (Mexico)

IF 1.1 4区地球科学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Physical Geography Pub Date : 2023-01-10 DOI:10.1080/02723646.2022.2163539

R. Vázquez, T. Carlón-Allende, F. García-Tenorio, F. Mendiola

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

ABSTRACT During the afternoon of 23 September 2018, a flash flood event occurred at Peribán de Ramos (Michoacán, Mexico). This event was triggered by 2-h precipitation of 58 mm, affecting at least 100 families, damaging 30 houses and killing 8 people. We present the first assessment of this event, for which we carried out stratigraphic descriptions, took sedimentological samples of the deposits and performed numerical simulations with the FLO-2D model to recreate the flow. Our results present a good fit with the flow heights, velocities, and the distribution of the flood zones observed in the field. We additionally performed a flood hazard assessment based on a rainfall frequency analysis for extreme events of 2-h duration at different return periods. Results show that even the 2-year event would reach flow depths >5 m and velocities exceeding 6.5 m/s, causing the overspill of Cutio river, affecting ~1500 inhabitants and avocado farming lands, causing a bigger impact on the population’s incomes and their way of life. We consider that these types of events could become more frequent and of major magnitude due to the change in land cover and land use, obstruction of natural drainages and changes in precipitation patterns in response to climate change.

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Peribán de Ramos, Michoacán(墨西哥)山洪暴发事件的数值模拟

摘要2018年9月23日下午，墨西哥米却肯州佩里班德拉莫斯市发生山洪灾害。此次事件是由2小时的58 毫米，影响了至少100个家庭，损坏了30栋房屋，造成8人死亡。我们对这一事件进行了首次评估，为此我们进行了地层描述，采集了沉积物的沉积学样本，并使用FLO-2D模型进行了数值模拟，以重现水流。我们的结果与现场观测到的洪水高度、流速和洪水区分布非常吻合。我们还根据不同重现期持续2小时的极端事件的降雨频率分析进行了洪水危险性评估。结果表明，即使是2年的事件也会达到>5的流量深度 m，速度超过6.5 m/s，导致库蒂奥河泛滥，影响了约1500名居民和鳄梨种植地，对人口的收入和生活方式造成了更大的影响。我们认为，由于土地覆盖和土地利用的变化、自然排水系统的堵塞以及应对气候变化的降水模式的变化，这些类型的事件可能会变得更加频繁和严重。

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来源期刊

Physical Geography 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

3.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Physical Geography disseminates significant research in the environmental sciences, including research that integrates environmental processes and human activities. It publishes original papers devoted to research in climatology, geomorphology, hydrology, biogeography, soil science, human-environment interactions, and research methods in physical geography, and welcomes original contributions on topics at the intersection of two or more of these categories.