Pro-BNP versus MEDS Score in Determining the Prognosis of Sepsis Patients; a Diagnostic Accuracy Study

Abstract

Introduction: Pro-brain natriuretic peptide (Pro-BNP) can act as an independent predictor of mortality in septic patients. This study aimed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of pro-BNP and Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score in this regard. Method: This cross-sectional study was conducted on > 14 years old sepsis patients of an emergency department (ED), during 2 years. The level of Pro-BNP and MEDS score were measured for all eligible patients and considering one month mortality as reference, screening performance characteristics of the two tests were compared using SPSS 21 and STATS 11. Results: 121 patients with the mean age of 75.87±11.82 years were studied (55.4% male). 85 (70.25%) patients had moderate to high probability of mortality according to MEDS score. The mean Pro-BNP levels of survivor and non-survivor patients were 489.69 ± 327.47 and 3954.98 ± 2717.85 pg/ml, respectively (p < 0.0001). Sensitivity and specificity of Pro-BNP (in 1000 pg/ml cut off) and MEDS score (in level 3) in prediction of 1-month mortality were 93.6 (83.7-97.9), 94.8 (84.7-98.6), 65.0 (51.9-76.3), and 98.2 (89.5-99.9), respectively. Area under the ROC curve of the two tests were 97.36 (95% CI: 92.92-94.48) and 92.31 (95% CI: 86.35-96.53), respectively (p = 0.0543). Conclusion: Pro-BNP and MEDS score both have excellent diagnostic accuracy in predicting 1-month mortality of sepsis patients. However, considering the higher sensitivity as well as availability and ease of calculation, it seems that Pro-BNP can be considered an appropriate tool for screening patients with high risk of mortality following sepsis in ED.