Push or Pull: What Drives Emigration from Lithuania?

IF 0.9 Q3 ECONOMICS
Remigijus Kavalnis, Gindrute Kasnauskiene
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

This article investigates the main economic and non-economic determinants of population emigration from Lithuania. Our study offers a new approach for modelling the push and pull factors considering the push–pull link. We construct the relative variables and deploy mixed models for the macro data of Lithuania and 24 European destinations over 2010–2019. Our findings reveal that such economic variables as relative economic welfare, unemployment and income inequality are the key push–pull factors. The study results indicate that changes in relative welfare have the highest power to change Lithuanian emigration with the main impact recorded the same year, while changes in relative income inequality and unemployment affect fewer emigrants, and it takes one year for the effect to materialise. The obtained higher importance of relative welfare compared to the average wage suggests that the goods and services provided by the state play a role in the personal cost–benefit calculation of prospective emigrants. This study addresses the research gap on the quantitative push–pull factor evaluation, the timing of their impact, connectivity of the push–pull factors and structural changes, providing a foundation for future research on the root causes of emigration.
推还是拉:是什么驱使立陶宛移民?
本文调查了立陶宛人口迁移的主要经济和非经济决定因素。我们的研究为考虑推挽环节的推挽因素建模提供了一种新的方法。本文对立陶宛和24个欧洲目的地2010-2019年的宏观数据构建了相对变量并部署了混合模型。研究结果表明,相对经济福利、失业率和收入不平等等经济变量是关键的推挽因素。研究结果表明,相对福利的变化对立陶宛移民的影响最大,主要影响发生在同一年,而相对收入不平等和失业的变化对移民的影响较小,并且需要一年的时间才能实现。与平均工资相比,相对福利的重要性更高,这表明国家提供的商品和服务在未来移民的个人成本效益计算中发挥了作用。本研究弥补了推拉因子定量评价、影响时间、推拉因子连通性和结构变化等方面的研究空白,为进一步研究移民的根本原因奠定了基础。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
12
审稿时长
20 weeks
期刊介绍: The journal aims to contribute to the development and dissemination of multidisciplinary knowledge on organizations and markets in emerging economies, to increase dialogue among scholars focused on a specific emerging economy or region and to encourage and give an outlet to high quality scholarship, both local and international, to this subject. Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies welcomes analysis of emerging economies from the perspectives of organizational sciences, marketing, economics, finance and related disciplines. The journal appreciates studies that highlight specificities and patterns that occur in emerging economies and develop new empirical and theoretical knowledge on the subject.
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