Growing rich without growing old: the impact of internal migration in China

IF 1.5 4区社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY

Asian Population Studies Pub Date : 2020-04-23 DOI:10.1080/17441730.2020.1750187

Mengni Chen, C. Lloyd, P. Yip

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引用次数: 6

Abstract

ABSTRACT In China in 2017, the elderly dependency ratio (EDR) – which is the number of elderly per 100 working-age population – was 14.8. This represents a huge increase from 6.7 in 1970. The speed and magnitude of the ageing trend remains a serious threat to the sustainable development of China. However, the EDRs exhibit wide and unusual spatial variations within the nation. In this study, based on a decomposition analysis, the spatial pattern of the EDRs across 31 provinces in China in 2000 and 2010 are investigated. The analyses attributed the change in the EDRs to four factors: working-age migration, mortality of the population aged 5–54, population momentum, and growth of the elderly population. It is found that the impacts of internal migration offset or even reverse the regional differentials in fertility and mortality, leading to an unusual ageing pattern in China. More developed provinces attracted young workers, which reduced the EDRs despite persistent low fertility; whereas the less developed provinces saw young workers outflow, increasing the EDRs despite the relatively high fertility rate. To some extent, it could be said that some provinces are ‘growing old before growing rich’, while other provinces are growing rich without growing old.

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变富而不变老:中国内部移民的影响

2017年，中国的老年抚养比(EDR)为14.8，即每100个工作年龄人口中老年人口的数量。与1970年的6.7相比，这是一个巨大的增长。老龄化趋势的速度和规模仍然严重威胁着中国的可持续发展。然而，edr在国内表现出广泛而不寻常的空间差异。基于分解分析，研究了2000年和2010年中国31个省区经济发展的空间格局。分析将edr的变化归因于四个因素:工作年龄人口迁移、5-54岁人口死亡率、人口动量和老年人口增长。研究发现，国内移民的影响抵消甚至逆转了生育率和死亡率的区域差异，导致中国出现了一种不同寻常的老龄化模式。较发达的省份吸引了年轻工人，这降低了edr，尽管生育率持续较低;而欠发达省份则出现了年轻劳动力外流的现象，尽管生育率相对较高，但gdp仍在增加。从某种程度上说，有些省份是“未富先老”，而有些省份是“未老先富”。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Asian Population Studies DEMOGRAPHY-

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

14.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The first international population journal to focus exclusively on population issues in Asia, Asian Population Studies publishes original research on matters related to population in this large, complex and rapidly changing region, and welcomes substantive empirical analyses, theoretical works, applied research, and contributions to methodology.