Armed forces and airwaves: media control and military coups in autocracies

Abstract

ABSTRACT Media play a key role in military coups. Yet, there is little research on information environments and coups. Therefore, this article asks whether the extent of media control affects coup attempts and coup success in dictatorships. It argues that autocracies with extensive media control offer an opaque decision environment for plotters, thus decreasing the likelihood of coup attempts. On the outcome stage, extensive media control is expected to lower the prospects of success as conspirators struggle to control public information. Additionally, coups are disaggregated, arguing that the effect of media control varies between regime change and leader reshuffling coups. The arguments are tested by employing regression analyses. As expected, strong media control renders coup attempts and success less likely. While I do not find robust evidence for a varying effect of media control on different types of coup attempts, its influence on coup success is driven by regime change coups.