A Dynamic Relationship Between Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourism Using a Three-dimensional Wavelet Analysis

Abstract

ABSTRACT Global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) has various implications for tourism activities. This study examines the effect of GEPU on tourism activities of the fragile five (F5) countries for the period of 1997 through 2017. Results of GEPU in the F5 countries have significant, generally negative effects on tourism activities but change over time, displaying long-run to short-run cycles. The finding reflects that tourism activities apparently depend on GEPU. Furthermore, the timing and frequency change when GEPU co-moves with tourism. Thus it can be recommended that governments concentrate on GEPU and further provide and nurture the expansion of the supply of tourism activities in the F5 countries which will ultimately benefit the tourism and economic growth.