Decision support system for sustainable economic development of the Far Eastern Federal District

Abstract

In this paper we present a decision support system for the sustainable economic growth of the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) of the Russian Federation that consists of several regions. Using system dynamics and agent-based modeling methods, a simulation model of the FEFD economy is developed. The model is implemented in the AnyLogic system; it makes it possible to investigate the influence of multiple factors influencing the FEFD economy, for example, increasing rates of investment in fixed assets, average wages rates, subsidies from the federal budget, the forecasted price trends of oil, gas, carbon, diamonds and fishing industry products. One feature of the model is the possibility to analyze the dynamics of development of all regions of the FEFD, as well as taking into account the influence of external macroeconomic factors. The decision support system we designed allows us to visualize important characteristics of the FEFD subjects using the map of Russia (GIS) and to save the results of the simulation modelling to the system database. At the same time, we have the possibility of forecasting the dynamics of the Gross Regional Product (a geographic information system) of the Federal District depending on values of the control parameters. Different scenarios of the FEFD development are investigated. The realistic scenario assumes stabilization of prices for the main energy resources (oil, gas, coal) and minerals with simultaneous growth of investments in fixed assets. The pessimistic scenario assumes falling prices for energy, diamonds, fishing products, etc., as well as the reduction in the numbers of the economically active population in the Far Eastern Federal district. The optimistic scenario assumes stable increasing demand and prices for the products of all main sectors of the economy of the Federal District, maintaining current growth rates in industry and agriculture.