Numerical Modelling of Permafrost Dynamics under Climate Change and Evolving Ground Surface Conditions: Application to an Instrumented Permafrost Mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada
{"title":"Numerical Modelling of Permafrost Dynamics under Climate Change and Evolving Ground Surface Conditions: Application to an Instrumented Permafrost Mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada","authors":"J. Perreault, R. Fortier, J. Molson","doi":"10.1080/11956860.2021.1949819","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Numerical simulations were carried out based on a conceptual cryohydrogeological model of a permafrost mound near Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada, to assess the impacts of climate warming and changes in surface conditions on permafrost degradation. The 2D model includes groundwater flow, advective-conductive heat transport, phase change and latent heat. Changes in surface conditions which are characteristic of the site were represented empirically in the model by applying spatially- and temporally-variable ground surface temperatures derived from linear regressions between monitored surface and air temperatures. After reaching a transient steady-state condition close to present-day conditions, the simulations were then extended to 2100 under hypothetical climate warming scenarios and using imposed changes in surface conditions consistent with observed on-site evolution. The simulations show that the development of a thermokarst pond and shrubification respectively induce ground warming of up to 0.5°C and 1.5°C, upward migration of the permafrost base by up to 2 and 4 m, and a decrease in the lateral permafrost extent of 1 and 7 m, relative to a reference case without changes in surface conditions. Feedback from permafrost degradation which drives changes in ground surface conditions should be included in future numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics.","PeriodicalId":51030,"journal":{"name":"Ecoscience","volume":"28 1","pages":"377 - 397"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2021-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/11956860.2021.1949819","citationCount":"6","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecoscience","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/11956860.2021.1949819","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Abstract
ABSTRACT Numerical simulations were carried out based on a conceptual cryohydrogeological model of a permafrost mound near Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada, to assess the impacts of climate warming and changes in surface conditions on permafrost degradation. The 2D model includes groundwater flow, advective-conductive heat transport, phase change and latent heat. Changes in surface conditions which are characteristic of the site were represented empirically in the model by applying spatially- and temporally-variable ground surface temperatures derived from linear regressions between monitored surface and air temperatures. After reaching a transient steady-state condition close to present-day conditions, the simulations were then extended to 2100 under hypothetical climate warming scenarios and using imposed changes in surface conditions consistent with observed on-site evolution. The simulations show that the development of a thermokarst pond and shrubification respectively induce ground warming of up to 0.5°C and 1.5°C, upward migration of the permafrost base by up to 2 and 4 m, and a decrease in the lateral permafrost extent of 1 and 7 m, relative to a reference case without changes in surface conditions. Feedback from permafrost degradation which drives changes in ground surface conditions should be included in future numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics.
期刊介绍:
Écoscience, is a multidisciplinary journal that covers all aspects of ecology. The journal welcomes submissions in English or French and publishes original work focusing on patterns and processes at various temporal and spatial scales across different levels of biological organization. Articles include original research, brief communications and reviews.