Numerical Modelling of Permafrost Dynamics under Climate Change and Evolving Ground Surface Conditions: Application to an Instrumented Permafrost Mound at Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada

IF 1.3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ECOLOGY
J. Perreault, R. Fortier, J. Molson
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引用次数: 6

Abstract

ABSTRACT Numerical simulations were carried out based on a conceptual cryohydrogeological model of a permafrost mound near Umiujaq, Nunavik (Québec), Canada, to assess the impacts of climate warming and changes in surface conditions on permafrost degradation. The 2D model includes groundwater flow, advective-conductive heat transport, phase change and latent heat. Changes in surface conditions which are characteristic of the site were represented empirically in the model by applying spatially- and temporally-variable ground surface temperatures derived from linear regressions between monitored surface and air temperatures. After reaching a transient steady-state condition close to present-day conditions, the simulations were then extended to 2100 under hypothetical climate warming scenarios and using imposed changes in surface conditions consistent with observed on-site evolution. The simulations show that the development of a thermokarst pond and shrubification respectively induce ground warming of up to 0.5°C and 1.5°C, upward migration of the permafrost base by up to 2 and 4 m, and a decrease in the lateral permafrost extent of 1 and 7 m, relative to a reference case without changes in surface conditions. Feedback from permafrost degradation which drives changes in ground surface conditions should be included in future numerical modelling of permafrost dynamics.
气候变化和地表条件演变下的多年冻土动力学数值模拟:在加拿大努纳维克乌米乌贾的仪器化多年冻土丘上的应用
基于加拿大Nunavik (qusamubec) Umiujaq附近永久冻土堆的冰冻水文地质概念模型进行了数值模拟,以评估气候变暖和地表条件变化对永久冻土堆退化的影响。二维模型包括地下水流动、对流导热输运、相变和潜热。地表条件的变化是该站点的特征,通过应用由监测的地表温度和空气温度之间的线性回归得出的空间和时间变化的地表温度,在模型中经验地表示出来。在达到接近当前条件的瞬态稳态条件后,将模拟扩展到2100年,在假设的气候变暖情景下,使用与观测到的现场演变一致的地表条件的强加变化。模拟结果表明,与地面条件不变的参考情况相比,热岩溶塘和灌木化的发展分别导致地面升温0.5°C和1.5°C,多年冻土基础向上迁移2和4 m,多年冻土横向面积减少1和7 m。驱动地表条件变化的永久冻土退化反馈应包括在未来的永久冻土动力学数值模拟中。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Ecoscience
Ecoscience 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
13
审稿时长
>36 weeks
期刊介绍: Écoscience, is a multidisciplinary journal that covers all aspects of ecology. The journal welcomes submissions in English or French and publishes original work focusing on patterns and processes at various temporal and spatial scales across different levels of biological organization. Articles include original research, brief communications and reviews.
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