Future LTC needs of the elderly in Japan with some reference to Germany

Abstract

Due to the highest life expectancy at birth among OECD member countries, the Japanese elderly face the risk of long-term care (LTC) needs. Japan and Germany have implemented public long-term care insurances, and both countries hoped that improving care in the community would lower nursing home usage and spending. After reviewing the LTC recipient rate of the elderly in Japan and Germany from international perspectives, the LTC recipient rate and expenditure among the Japanese elderly were estimated for the period of 2020-2070, using the results of the projection of the elderly by dependency level obtained from the INAHSIM (Integrated Analytical Model for Household Simulation) 2018 simulation. Long-term care expenditure is quite closely related to ageing and it is important to reduce the LTC recipient rate through prevention and putting the right incentives in the system.