Sugiharso Safuan, E. Sugandi, Okta Qomaruddin Azis, Risna Triandhari
{"title":"INDONESIA’S FINANCIAL STRESS EVENTS AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS","authors":"Sugiharso Safuan, E. Sugandi, Okta Qomaruddin Azis, Risna Triandhari","doi":"10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1743","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we use a Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector AutoRegression model to investigate the episodic relationship between financial stress and the key macroeconomic variables in the case of Indonesia. We find different nature of relationships among Indonesia’s real sector variables (household consumption expenditure and consumer price index), financial sector variables (interbank money market rate) and the policy variable (broad money supply during the times of high and low financial stress). Regime changes occurred on several occasions, including during the 2008 global financial crisis period and at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bmeb.v25i3.1743","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
In this study, we use a Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector AutoRegression model to investigate the episodic relationship between financial stress and the key macroeconomic variables in the case of Indonesia. We find different nature of relationships among Indonesia’s real sector variables (household consumption expenditure and consumer price index), financial sector variables (interbank money market rate) and the policy variable (broad money supply during the times of high and low financial stress). Regime changes occurred on several occasions, including during the 2008 global financial crisis period and at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.