Diversionary Politics and Territorial Disputes: Evidence from Turkish Airspace Incursions

IF 1.7 2区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Foreign Policy Analysis Pub Date : 2021-03-30 DOI:10.1093/FPA/ORAB007

Marius Mehrl, Ioannis Choulis

引用次数: 4

Abstract

Diversionary theories of interstate conflict suggest that domestic problems push leaders to initiate hostilities against foreign foes in order to garner support. However, the empirical support for this proposition is mixed as critics point out that leaders should not start conflicts that can be extremely costly for them, potentially even removing them from office. We propose that while leaders may not initiate new conflicts, they do tap into existing territorial disputes when facing internal disapproval. That is, they engage in material acts of foreign policy showing domestic audiences that they defend or emphasize their country's claim while being unlikely to result in full-scale armed confrontations. To test this claim, we use monthly data, covering the period 2013–2020, on leader approval and incursions into contested airspace from Turkey's long-standing territorial dispute with Greece. Results from time-series models offer support for our expectation.

查看原文本刊更多论文

多元化政治与领土争端：来自土耳其领空入侵的证据

国家间冲突的转移性理论认为，国内问题促使领导人对外国敌人发动敌对行动，以获得支持。然而，对这一主张的实证支持褒贬不一，因为批评人士指出，领导人不应该挑起对他们来说代价极高的冲突，甚至有可能让他们下台。我们认为，虽然领导人可能不会挑起新的冲突，但在面临内部反对时，他们确实会利用现有的领土争端。也就是说，他们采取实质性的外交政策行动，向国内观众展示他们捍卫或强调自己国家的主张，同时不太可能导致全面的武装对抗。为了验证这一说法，我们使用了2013-2020年期间的月度数据，记录了土耳其领导人的批准和土耳其与希腊长期存在的领土争端中有争议空域的入侵情况。时间序列模型的结果支持了我们的预期。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Foreign Policy Analysis INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-

CiteScore

3.60

自引率

9.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： Reflecting the diverse, comparative and multidisciplinary nature of the field, Foreign Policy Analysis provides an open forum for research publication that enhances the communication of concepts and ideas across theoretical, methodological, geographical and disciplinary boundaries. By emphasizing accessibility of content for scholars of all perspectives and approaches in the editorial and review process, Foreign Policy Analysis serves as a source for efforts at theoretical and methodological integration and deepening the conceptual debates throughout this rich and complex academic research tradition. Foreign policy analysis, as a field of study, is characterized by its actor-specific focus. The underlying, often implicit argument is that the source of international politics and change in international politics is human beings, acting individually or in groups. In the simplest terms, foreign policy analysis is the study of the process, effects, causes or outputs of foreign policy decision-making in either a comparative or case-specific manner.