Subtle Impacts of Temperature and Rainfall Patterns on Land Cover Change Overtime and Future Projections in the Mara River Basin, Kenya

Fredrick M. Mngube, R. Kapiyo, Paul Aboum, D. Anyona, G. Dida
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

The interactive and cumulative effect of temperature and rainfall on land cover change is a priority at global, regional and local scale. This study examined changes in six land cover categories (forestland, grasslands, shrub land, bare land, built-up areas and agricultural lands) in four sub-catchments (Amala, Nyangores, Talek and Sand River), of the Mara River basin over a 30-year period (1987-2017) and made predictions of future land cover change patterns. Landsat Imageries of 90 m resolution were retrieved and analyzed using ArcGIS 10.0 software. Relationship between NDVI, temperature and precipitation was determined using Pearson’s correlation coefficient, while Markov chains analyses were performed on different land cover categories to project future trends. Results showed low to moderate (R2 = 0.002 to 0.6) trends of change in NDVI of different land cover categories across all sub-catchments. The greatest change (R2 0.34 to 0.5) was recorded in bare land in three of the four sub-catchments studied. Precipitation showed a strong positive correlation with built-up areas, forestlands, croplands, bare land, grasslands and shrub lands, while temperature correlated strongly but negatively with the same land cover categories. The change detection matrix projected significant but varying changes in land cover categories across the four sub-catchments by 2027. This study underscores the impact of changing climatic factors on various land cover categories in the Mara River basin sub-catchments, with different land cover categories exhibiting strong positive sensitivity to high precipitation and low temperature and vice-versa.
温度和降雨模式对肯尼亚马拉河流域土地覆盖变化的细微影响及未来预测
温度和降雨对土地覆盖变化的互动和累积影响是全球、区域和地方各级的优先事项。本研究调查了马拉河流域四个子流域(Amala、Nyangores、Talek和Sand River)30年(1987-2017年)六个土地覆盖类别(林地、草地、灌木地、裸地、建成区和农业用地)的变化,并预测了未来的土地覆盖变化模式。使用ArcGIS 10.0软件检索并分析了90米分辨率的陆地卫星图像。NDVI、温度和降水之间的关系使用Pearson相关系数确定,而对不同的土地覆盖类别进行马尔可夫链分析,以预测未来趋势。结果显示,所有子流域不同土地覆盖类别的NDVI变化趋势为低至中等(R2=0.002至0.6)。在所研究的四个亚集水区中,有三个的裸地变化最大(R2 0.34至0.5)。降水量与建成区、林地、农田、裸地、草原和灌木林呈强正相关,而温度与相同的土地覆盖类别呈强负相关。变化检测矩阵预测,到2027年,四个子流域的土地覆盖类别将发生重大但不同的变化。这项研究强调了气候因素变化对马拉河流域子流域各种土地覆盖类别的影响,不同的土地覆盖类别对高降水和低温表现出强烈的正敏感性,反之亦然。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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