The fate of Holoregmia, a monospecific genus endemic to the Brazilian Caatinga, under different future climate scenarios

IF 1.1 4区 生物学 Q3 PLANT SCIENCES
Taynara Rabelo-Costa, Paulo Weslem Portal Gomes, Brenda Oliveira Rocha, Iury Leite Cruz, Ravena Santiago Alves, Tiê Rocha de Sousa Oliveira, José Luís Passos Cordeiro, Moabe Ferreira Fernandes, E. N. Lughadha, Marcelo Freire Moro
{"title":"The fate of Holoregmia, a monospecific genus endemic to the Brazilian Caatinga, under different future climate scenarios","authors":"Taynara Rabelo-Costa, Paulo Weslem Portal Gomes, Brenda Oliveira Rocha, Iury Leite Cruz, Ravena Santiago Alves, Tiê Rocha de Sousa Oliveira, José Luís Passos Cordeiro, Moabe Ferreira Fernandes, E. N. Lughadha, Marcelo Freire Moro","doi":"10.5091/plecevo.90511","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Background and aims – Climatic fluctuations during the Pleistocene altered the distribution of many species and even entire biomes, allowing some species to increase their range while others underwent reductions. Recent and ongoing anthropogenic climate change is altering climatic patterns very rapidly and is likely to impact species’ distributions over shorter timescales than previous natural fluctuations. Therefore, we aimed to understand how Pleistocene and Holocene climatic fluctuations might have shaped the current distribution of Holoregmia and explore its expected distribution under future climate scenarios.\n Material and methods – We modelled the potential distribution of Holoregmia viscida (Martyniaceae), a monospecific plant genus endemic to the semi-arid Caatinga Domain in Brazil. We used an ensemble approach to model suitable areas for Holoregmia under present conditions, Paleoclimatic scenarios, and global warming scenarios in 2050 and 2090.\n Key results – Holocene climates in most Caatinga were too humid for Holoregmia, which restricted its suitable areas to the southern Caatinga, similar to its current distribution. However, under global warming scenarios, the Caatinga is expected to become too dry for this lineage, resulting in a steady decline in the area suitable for Holoregmia and even its possible extinction under the most pessimistic scenario modelled.\n Conclusion – The predicted extinction of the ancient and highly specialized Holoregmia viscida highlights the possible consequences of climate change for some species of endemic Caatinga flora. Invaluable phylogenetic diversity may be lost in the coming decades, representing millions of years of unique evolutionary history and consequent loss of evolutionary potential to adapt to future environmental changes in semi-arid environments.","PeriodicalId":54603,"journal":{"name":"Plant Ecology and Evolution","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1000,"publicationDate":"2022-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Plant Ecology and Evolution","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5091/plecevo.90511","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"PLANT SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1

Abstract

Background and aims – Climatic fluctuations during the Pleistocene altered the distribution of many species and even entire biomes, allowing some species to increase their range while others underwent reductions. Recent and ongoing anthropogenic climate change is altering climatic patterns very rapidly and is likely to impact species’ distributions over shorter timescales than previous natural fluctuations. Therefore, we aimed to understand how Pleistocene and Holocene climatic fluctuations might have shaped the current distribution of Holoregmia and explore its expected distribution under future climate scenarios. Material and methods – We modelled the potential distribution of Holoregmia viscida (Martyniaceae), a monospecific plant genus endemic to the semi-arid Caatinga Domain in Brazil. We used an ensemble approach to model suitable areas for Holoregmia under present conditions, Paleoclimatic scenarios, and global warming scenarios in 2050 and 2090. Key results – Holocene climates in most Caatinga were too humid for Holoregmia, which restricted its suitable areas to the southern Caatinga, similar to its current distribution. However, under global warming scenarios, the Caatinga is expected to become too dry for this lineage, resulting in a steady decline in the area suitable for Holoregmia and even its possible extinction under the most pessimistic scenario modelled. Conclusion – The predicted extinction of the ancient and highly specialized Holoregmia viscida highlights the possible consequences of climate change for some species of endemic Caatinga flora. Invaluable phylogenetic diversity may be lost in the coming decades, representing millions of years of unique evolutionary history and consequent loss of evolutionary potential to adapt to future environmental changes in semi-arid environments.
Holoregmia是巴西Caatinga特有的单种属,在未来不同气候情景下的命运
背景和目的-更新世期间的气候波动改变了许多物种甚至整个生物群落的分布,使一些物种的范围增加,而另一些物种的范围则减少。最近和目前的人为气候变化正在非常迅速地改变气候模式,并可能在比以往自然波动更短的时间尺度上影响物种的分布。因此,我们的目的是了解更新世和全新世气候波动如何影响全息藻的当前分布,并探索其在未来气候情景下的预期分布。材料和方法-我们模拟了Holoregmia visida (Martyniaceae)的潜在分布,这是巴西半干旱Caatinga地区特有的单种植物属。我们使用集合方法模拟了2050年和2090年在当前条件下、古气候情景下和全球变暖情景下适合全息重现的区域。主要结果——全新世的气候对于Holoregmia来说过于潮湿,这限制了它的适宜区域在Caatinga南部,类似于它现在的分布。然而,在全球变暖的情况下,卡廷加预计会变得过于干燥,不适合这个谱系,导致适合全息鲨的区域不断减少,甚至在最悲观的情况下,它可能会灭绝。结论:预测的古代高度特化的Holoregmia visida的灭绝,突出了气候变化对一些Caatinga特有植物群的可能后果。在未来的几十年里,宝贵的系统发育多样性可能会丧失,这代表着数百万年独特的进化史,并因此丧失了适应未来半干旱环境中环境变化的进化潜力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Plant Ecology and Evolution
Plant Ecology and Evolution PLANT SCIENCES-
CiteScore
2.20
自引率
9.10%
发文量
27
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Plant Ecology and Evolution is an international peer-reviewed journal devoted to ecology, phylogenetics and systematics of all ‘plant’ groups in the traditional sense (including algae, cyanobacteria, fungi, myxomycetes), also covering related fields. The journal is published by Meise Botanic Garden and the Royal Botanical Society of Belgium.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信