Differential responses of Kashmir Himalayan threatened medicinal plants to anticipated climate change

IF 2.2 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Javaid M. Dad, I. Rashid
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

Summary As natural and anthropogenic forcings impel anticipated climate change, their effects on biodiversity and environmental sustainability are evident. A fundamental question that is often overlooked is: which changes in climate will cause the redistribution or extinction of threatened species? Here, we mapped and modelled the current and future geographical distributions of the four threatened medicinal plants – Aconitum heterophyllum Wall. ex Royle, Fritillaria cirrhosa D.Don, Meconopsis aculeata Royle and Rheum webbianum Royle – in Kashmir Himalaya using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. Species occurrence records were collated from detailed field studies carried out between the years 2010 and 2020. Four general circulation models for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios were chosen for future range changes over periods around 2050 (average for 2041–2060) and 2070 (average of 2061–2080). Notable differences existed between species in their responses to predictive environmental variables of temperature and precipitation. Increase in the most suitable habitat, except for A. heterophyllum and R. webbianum, were evident across Himalayan Mountain regions, while the Pir Panjal mountain region exhibited a decrease for all four species under future climate change scenarios. This study exemplifies the idiosyncratic response of narrow-range plants to expected future climate change and highlights conservation implications.
克什米尔喜马拉雅地区受威胁药用植物对预期气候变化的差异响应
随着自然和人为作用力推动预期的气候变化,它们对生物多样性和环境可持续性的影响是显而易见的。一个经常被忽视的根本问题是:气候的哪些变化会导致受威胁物种的重新分布或灭绝?在这里,我们绘制并模拟了四种受威胁药用植物——杂叶乌头墙的当前和未来地理分布。ex Royle、Fritillia肝硬化D.Don、Meconopsis acureata Royle和Rheum webbianum Royle——在克什米尔喜马拉雅地区使用最大熵(MaxEnt)建模。物种发生记录是根据2010年至2020年期间进行的详细实地研究整理的。代表性浓度路径(RCP)4.5和RCP8.5气候变化情景的四个总环流模型被选择用于2050年(2041-2060年的平均值)和2070年(2061-2080年的均值)前后的未来范围变化。物种之间对温度和降水等预测环境变量的反应存在显著差异。除A.heterophylum和R.webbianum外,喜马拉雅山区最合适的栖息地明显增加,而在未来的气候变化情景下,Pir Panjal山区的所有四个物种都有所减少。这项研究展示了窄范围植物对未来气候变化的特殊反应,并强调了保护的意义。
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来源期刊
Environmental Conservation
Environmental Conservation 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
3.70%
发文量
43
审稿时长
>36 weeks
期刊介绍: Environmental Conservation is one of the longest-standing, most highly-cited of the interdisciplinary environmental science journals. It includes research papers, reports, comments, subject reviews, and book reviews addressing environmental policy, practice, and natural and social science of environmental concern at the global level, informed by rigorous local level case studies. The journal"s scope is very broad, including issues in human institutions, ecosystem change, resource utilisation, terrestrial biomes, aquatic systems, and coastal and land use management. Environmental Conservation is essential reading for all environmentalists, managers, consultants, agency workers and scientists wishing to keep abreast of current developments in environmental science.
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