An Augmented Measurement of the Housing Affordability Cycles in Malaysia

IF 0.5 Q4 ECONOMICS

Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies Pub Date : 2020-06-14 DOI:10.22452/mjes.vol57no1.7

Zhi-Cheng Voon, C. Hooy, Chin-Hong Puah

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Malaysia’s property market has been going through a difficult phase as the supply of property stocks are excessive with the demand unable to catch up, and hence, many unsold units remaining on the market. The primary aim of this paper is to develop an index-based housing affordability indicator known as the housing affordability leading index (HALI), which is based on the indicator compilation approach founded by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The time-varying Markov switching (TVMS) model is then employed to assess the transition probabilities of the constructed housing affordability indicator. The transition probabilities estimate the prospects of the housing affordability condition and how long it will stay in that particular condition before having any major turnover. As the data employed was monthly data from year 2000 to year 2015, the constructed HALI successfully reflects the prior movements of the non-index housing affordability indicator price to income ratios (PIR). The empirical results show that the HALI has an average leading period of 9.5 months when taking the PIR as a benchmark of coincidence indicator for housing affordability movement.

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马来西亚住房可负担性周期的扩充测量

马来西亚的房地产市场一直处于艰难阶段，因为房地产库存供应过多，需求无法跟上，因此市场上仍有许多未售出的单元。本文的主要目的是基于国家经济研究局（NBER）建立的指标汇编方法，开发一种基于指数的住房负担能力指标，称为住房负担能力领先指数（HALI）。然后采用时变马尔可夫切换（TVMS）模型来评估建造住房可负担性指标的转移概率。过渡概率估计了住房负担能力状况的前景，以及在出现任何重大周转之前，它将在这种特定状况下停留多久。由于采用的数据是2000年至2015年的月度数据，构建的HALI成功地反映了非指数住房负担能力指标价格收入比（PIR）的先前变动。实证结果表明，当PIR作为住房负担能力运动的重合指标时，HALI的平均领先期为9.5个月。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.30

自引率

25.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The primary purpose of the journal is to promote publications of original research related to the Malaysian economy. It is also designed to serve as an outlet for studies on the South-east Asian countries and the Asian region. The journal also considers high-quality works related to other regions that provide relevant policy lessons to Malaysia. The journal is receptive to papers in all areas of economics. We encourage specifically contributions on all range of economic topics of an applied or policy nature. At the same time, submissions of methodological or theoretical studies with results that are of practical use are welcome. Works that are interdisciplinary will be considered provided that they contain substantial economic contents.