CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PRODUCTION OF POLISH AGRICULTURE

Abstract

The main objective of the study is the quantitative characteristics of the business cycle in agriculture in Poland in 1991-2016. The first part of the article is devoted to the theory of cyclical fluctuations in the agriculture. The second part includes an empirical analysis. The investigation of the agricultural business cycle is based on the year-to-year dynamics of the gross value added and final output. On the basis of the added value it was possible to identify four full cycles: (1) 1996-2000; (2) 2001-2006; (3) 2007-2012; (4) 2013-2015. using the final output, it was considered that also in this case, four cycles can be determined: (1) up to 2000; (2) 2001-2006; (3) 2007-2010; (4) 2011-2015. The cycles’ duration was usually 3-6 years. however, the phases most frequently lasted from 2 to 4 years. On the basis of the analysis, it was also concluded that the amplitude of the entire cycle of gross value added as well as of its individual phases was always, in absolute terms, higher than the amplitude of the final production cycle and phases. The highest absolute amplitude was observed for the cycle of gross value added in 2013-2015.