Economic policy and confidence of economic agents – a causal relationship?

IF 0.4 Q4 ECONOMICS
Silvo Dajčman
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to study whether innovations in monetary and fiscal policy are a leading indicator of future business and consumer confidence and reverse applying the panel Granger causality analysis to two periods in the history of the euro area: before and after the start of the Great Recession. The results show that Granger causality interaction between the confidence of economic agents and the stance of monetary policy (measured by the shadow rate) is stronger than between the former and the fiscal policy instruments. The European Central Bank (ECB) shadow rate innovations Granger caused business and consumer confidence in both periods, but also indicators of confidence Granger caused the shadow rate. No such feedback could be established between two fiscal policy instruments (government expenditure and revenue growth) and the indicators of confidence. Government spending and revenues Granger caused business confidence in the first subperiod, but not in the second subperiod when the causality reversed. The government revenues Granger caused consumer confidence in the first subperiod, while government expenditures in the second subperiod. Consumer confidence Granger caused government spending in the first subperiod.
经济政策与经济主体信心——因果关系?
摘要本文的目的是研究货币和财政政策的创新是否是未来企业和消费者信心的先行指标,并将面板格兰杰因果分析反向应用于欧元区历史上的两个时期:大衰退开始之前和之后。结果表明,经济主体信心与货币政策立场(以影子利率衡量)之间的格兰杰因果交互作用强于经济主体信心与财政政策工具之间的格兰杰因果交互作用。欧洲央行(ECB)影子利率的创新格兰杰引起了企业和消费者两个时期的信心,同时格兰杰也引起了影子利率的信心指标。在两种财政政策工具(政府支出和收入增长)和信心指数之间无法建立这种反馈。政府支出和政府收入在第一子期对企业信心有格兰杰影响,但在第二子期对企业信心没有格兰杰影响。政府收入对第一子期消费者信心有格兰杰影响,而政府支出对第二子期消费者信心有格兰杰影响。消费者信心格兰杰导致第一阶段政府支出。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
10
审稿时长
38 weeks
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