Analysis of a stochastic coronavirus (COVID-19) Lévy jump model with protective measures

IF 0.8 4区数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED

Stochastic Analysis and Applications Pub Date : 2021-10-18 DOI:10.1080/07362994.2021.1989312

T. Caraballo, M. El Fatini, Mohamed El khalifi, A. Rathinasamy

引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract This paper studied a stochastic epidemic model of the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Severe factors impacting the disease transmission are presented by white noise and compensated Poisson noise with possibly infinite characteristic measure. Large time estimates are established based on Kunita’s inequality rather than Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality for continuous diffusions. The effect of stochasticity is taken into account in the formulation of sufficient conditions for the extinction of COVID-19 and its persistence. Our results prove that environmental fluctuations can be privileged in controlling the pandemic behavior. Based on real parameter values, numerical results are presented to illustrate obtained results concerning the extinction and the persistence in mean of the disease.

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具有保护措施的随机冠状病毒（新冠肺炎）Lévy跳跃模型的分析

本文研究了新型冠状病毒（新冠肺炎）传播的随机流行病模型。白噪声和具有可能无限特征测度的补偿泊松噪声是影响疾病传播的严重因素。对于连续扩散，大时间估计是基于Kunita不等式而不是Burkholder-Davis-Gundy不等式建立的。在为新冠肺炎的灭绝及其持续性制定充分条件时，考虑到了随机性的影响。我们的研究结果证明，环境波动在控制疫情行为方面具有优势。基于实参数值，给出了数值结果，以说明所获得的关于该疾病的灭绝和平均值的持久性的结果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Stochastic Analysis and Applications 数学-统计学与概率论

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

7.70%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Stochastic Analysis and Applications presents the latest innovations in the field of stochastic theory and its practical applications, as well as the full range of related approaches to analyzing systems under random excitation. In addition, it is the only publication that offers the broad, detailed coverage necessary for the interfield and intrafield fertilization of new concepts and ideas, providing the scientific community with a unique and highly useful service.