Potential impact of scaling adaptation strategies for drought stress: a case of drought-tolerant maize varieties in Tanzania

Abstract

Drought-tolerant maize varieties (DTMVs) o ff er hope as an adaptation strategy for farmers facing increasing frequency of droughts in sub-Saharan Africa. Adoption of these varieties also o ff ers hope to enhance sustainability in the agricultural production system. However, these varieties are not yet widely cultivated, and the potential economic bene fi ts not fully understood. This study examines the scalability of DTMVs in Tanzania under three scenarios: (1) scalability conditional on knowledge of DTMVs; (ii) scalability conditional on (physical) seed availability in addition to awareness; and (iii) scalability conditional on seed a ff ordability in addition to awareness and (physical) seed availability. The study uses household production and consumption data from major regions in Tanzania. The results from the economic surplus model indicate that by 2032, the adoption of DTMVs could generate between US$ 373 million and US$ 499 million in cumulative bene fi ts for both producers and consumers. Such bene fi ts could potentially lift up to 1.6 million people out of poverty by 2032. It is estimated that consumers would get 40% of the bene fi ts and producers 60%, with the largest bene fi ts occurring in the major maize-producing regions of Mbeya, Rukwa, Ruvuma, Mwanza, Arusha, and Kagera. Consumers in Dar es Salaam would also bene fi t signi fi cantly from the price reductions resulting from increased production. The largest returns on investment would occur in Dodoma, Geita, Simiyu, Singida, and Kagera. These fi ndings justify the investment of both public and private funds to support the scaling of DTMVs in Tanzania.