The Trade-Off between Equal Representation and Electoral Participation: The Effect of Redistricting on Voter Turnout

Abstract

ABSTRACT Equal representation and electoral participation lie at the core of democracy. However, the two are sometimes contradictory. When redistricting is used to correct malapportionment, a typical example of unequal representation, it can discourage citizens from voting by increasing their anxiety about whether their interests are represented and increasing their information cost. The effect of redistricting on electoral participation has not been accurately estimated due to difficulty isolating the effect from past redistricting and other factors. Japan’s upper house conducted its first redistricting in 2016, providing an ideal opportunity to identify and isolate the effect of redistricting on electoral participation by avoiding the usual methodological problems. Using an original dataset on Japan’s upper house elections from 2001 to 2019 and employing a differences-in-differences design, this study reveals that redistricting reduced voter turnout by 10.3 percentage points and that the effect lasted until the second election after redistricting.