Decomposing Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth in OECD Countries*

IF 5.3 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Asian Economic Papers Pub Date : 2021-09-09 DOI:10.1162/asep_a_00839

Hyun‐Hoon Lee, Kwanho Shin

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, we investigate six channels through which population aging affects output growth per capita of 35 OECD countries where the old dependency ratio is already quite high. The six channels we consider are changes in: (i) physical capital; (ii) human capital; (iii) average working hours; (iv) labor participation rate; (v) age composition of 15–64 (the share of population aged between 15 and 64 years; and (vi) total factor productivity (TFP). We first confirm findings from previous studies that aging in OECD countries has negative effects on GDP growth per capita. We then find that the most important channel through which the negative effects of aging on economic growth operate is lowered TFP growth. Across our empirical specifications, lowered TFP growth associated with aging explains more than fully the lowered growth rate of GDP per capita. We also find evidence of demographic deficit (decreases in working age population share), but this negative effect of aging is more than nullified by compensating increases in the average working hours and the labor force participation rate. We conclude that because TFP growth rate can be permanently lowered, aging's negative effects on GDP growth per capita are expected to be permanent.

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经济合作与发展组织国家人口老龄化对经济增长的分解效应*

摘要在本文中，我们调查了35个老龄抚养比已经很高的经合组织国家的人口老龄化影响人均产出增长的六个渠道。我们考虑的六个渠道是：（一）实物资本；（ii）人力资本；（iii）平均工作时间；（iv）劳动参与率；（v） 15-64岁的年龄构成（年龄在15-64岁之间的人口比例；以及（vi）全要素生产率。我们首先证实了先前研究的结果，即经合组织国家的老龄化对人均GDP增长有负面影响。然后我们发现，老龄化对经济增长的负面影响最重要的渠道是全要素生产率的下降。在我们的经验规范中，与老龄化相关的全要素生产率增长率下降更充分地解释了人均GDP增长率下降的原因。我们还发现了人口赤字的证据（劳动年龄人口比例下降），但通过补偿平均工作时间和劳动力参与率的增加，老龄化的负面影响被抵消了。我们得出的结论是，由于全要素生产率增长率可以永久降低，老龄化对人均GDP增长的负面影响预计将是永久性的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Asian Economic Papers ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The journal Asian Economic Papers (AEP) is supported by several prominent institutions, including the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University in the United States. This shows that there is a strong emphasis on sustainable development within the journal's scope. Additionally, the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy in South Korea, the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) in Malaysia, and the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia in Indonesia also sponsor AEP. The articles published in AEP focus on conducting thorough and rigorous analyses of significant economic issues pertaining to specific Asian economies or the broader Asian region. The aim is to gain a deeper understanding of these issues and provide innovative solutions. By offering creative solutions to economic challenges, AEP contributes to the discourse and policymaking that impact the Asian economies and region as a whole.