{"title":"Drug Smuggling Seizures: The Effects of Reporting Consistency and Quality on the Observed Transnational Structure","authors":"Gisela Bichler, Ivette Jimenez","doi":"10.1177/00220426221107550","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"If it is possible to overcome significant data challenges, social network analytics could be used to expose structural vulnerabilities in transnational drug smuggling operations, offering clear targets for crime control efforts that aim to disrupt transhipment. This study explores the extent to which data inclusion decisions might distort the emergent structure of nation-to-nation smuggling networks mapped with aggregate intelligence using United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) incident level seizure data (2010–2016). Bivariate exponential random graph models (ERGM) show that relaxing data inclusion standards exposes illicit backchannels (reciprocity) and a more complete picture of major transhipment activity (activity and popularity spread) than would be otherwise undetected. Relaxed data inclusion standards may help to adjust for the data limitations associated with the detection of rare events and inconsistent reporting practices, if usage rules are followed.","PeriodicalId":15626,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Drug Issues","volume":"53 1","pages":"159 - 179"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Drug Issues","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00220426221107550","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"SUBSTANCE ABUSE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
If it is possible to overcome significant data challenges, social network analytics could be used to expose structural vulnerabilities in transnational drug smuggling operations, offering clear targets for crime control efforts that aim to disrupt transhipment. This study explores the extent to which data inclusion decisions might distort the emergent structure of nation-to-nation smuggling networks mapped with aggregate intelligence using United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) incident level seizure data (2010–2016). Bivariate exponential random graph models (ERGM) show that relaxing data inclusion standards exposes illicit backchannels (reciprocity) and a more complete picture of major transhipment activity (activity and popularity spread) than would be otherwise undetected. Relaxed data inclusion standards may help to adjust for the data limitations associated with the detection of rare events and inconsistent reporting practices, if usage rules are followed.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Drug Issues (JDI) was incorporated as a nonprofit entity in the State of Florida in 1971. In 1996, JDI was transferred to the Florida State University College of Criminology and Criminal Justice, and the Richard L. Rachin Endowment was established to support its continued publication. Since its inception, JDI has been dedicated to providing a professional and scholarly forum centered on the national and international problems associated with drugs, especially illicit drugs. It is a refereed publication with international contributors and subscribers. As a leader in its field, JDI is an instrument widely used by research scholars, public policy analysts, and those involved in the day-to-day struggle against the problem of drug abuse.