Public debt and inflation: empirical evidence from Ghana

Q2 Social Sciences

Development Studies Research Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI:10.1080/21665095.2021.1872392

A. Aimola, N. Odhiambo

引用次数: 11

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the impact of public debt on inflation in Ghana using annual data during the period 1983–2018. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and an error correction model to examine this linkage. The cointegrating regression results reveal evidence of a stable long-run relationship between inflation and the explanatory variables in the presence of a structural break. The findings also show a positive and significant impact of public debt on inflation. These results were found to hold, irrespective of whether the regression was conducted in the short run or in the long run. The study confirms the presence of the inflationary effects of public debt in Ghana. The government should, therefore, be prudent when considering increases in public debt to minimize volatility in inflation and its associated risks to the economy.

查看原文本刊更多论文

公共债务和通货膨胀:来自加纳的经验证据

摘要本文利用1983-2018年期间的年度数据，调查了加纳公共债务对通货膨胀的影响。本研究使用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）界检验方法进行协整，并使用误差校正模型来检验这种联系。协整回归结果揭示了在存在结构性断裂的情况下，通货膨胀和解释变量之间存在稳定的长期关系的证据。研究结果还表明，公共债务对通货膨胀产生了积极而重大的影响。无论回归是在短期还是长期进行，这些结果都是成立的。该研究证实了加纳公共债务的通货膨胀效应。因此，政府在考虑增加公共债务时应该谨慎，以尽量减少通货膨胀的波动及其对经济的相关风险。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Development Studies Research Social Sciences-Development

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： Development Studies Research ( DSR) is a Routledge journal dedicated to furthering debates in development studies. The journal provides a valuable platform for academics and practitioners to present their research on development issues to as broad an audience as possible. All DSR papers are published Open Access. This ensures that anyone, anywhere can engage with the valuable work being carried out by the myriad of academics and practitioners engaged in development research. The readership of DSR demonstrates that our goal of reaching as broad an audience as possible is being achieved. Papers are accessed by over 140 countries, some reaching over 9,000 downloads. The importance of the journal to impact is thus critical and the significance of OA to development researchers, exponential. Since its 2014 launch, the journal has examined numerous development issues from across the globe, including indigenous struggles, aid effectiveness, small-scale farming for poverty reduction, sustainable entrepreneurship, agricultural development, climate risk and the ‘resource curse’. Every paper published in DSR is an emblem of scientific rigour, having been reviewed first by members of an esteemed Editorial Board, and then by expert academics in a rigorous review process. Every paper, from the one examining a post-Millennium Development Goals environment by one of its architects (see Vandermortele 2014), to ones using established academic theory to understand development-imposed change (see Heeks and Stanforth 2015), and the more policy-oriented papers that contribute valuable recommendations to policy-makers and practitioners (see DSR Editor’s Choice: Policy), reaches a multidisciplinary audience.