Separating aggregate discouraged and added worker effects: the case of a former transition country

IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
E. Congregado, Ewa Gałecka-Burdziak, A. Golpe, R. Pater
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Research background: We analyse the added worker effect (AWE) and the discouraged worker effect (DWE) from an aggregate perspective. The first effect refers to an increase in labour force participation in response to a decrease in the wage rate. The second effect refers to the decision by workers who have been unsuccessful in their job search to leave the labour market or to decrease their labour force participation. For our analysis, we use the case of Poland, a country with a persistently low labour force participation rate. Purpose of the article: While previous studies focused on the net of the two effects, we aim to analyse the two effects both separately and simultaneously. We propose a new approach for analysing the two effects. We generalise and model them as resulting from different shocks: (i) the AWE as the result of a negative wage income shock, and (ii) the DWE as the result of a positive job search time shock. The underlying assumption is that both shocks have at least a transitory effect on the labour force participation rate. However, we also track the potential long-lasting effects of these shocks, and we analyse the reactions of gender and age groups to them. While this approach demonstrates the robustness of our results, it also provides the range of the sensitivity, as it shows that there are large differences in the magnitude of the AWE and the DWE for different labour market cohorts. Methods: We use the multivariate unobserved component model to extract the AWE and the DWE, and we then use VAR models, applying sign and exclusion restrictions to model the underlying shocks. We use quarterly data for Poland in 1995?2019. Most of these data come from the Labour Force Survey, while the rest come from Statistics Poland. Findings & value added: In contrast to previous literature, which analysed only the net effect of the two effects, we model the AWE and the DWE separately. Contrary to the findings of previous research, our approach seems to confirm that both effects are simultaneously present in the labour market, and both effects influence the labour force participation rate. Thus, we find that both effects are significant. Specifically, we show that the AWE is stronger, but transitory; while the DWE is weaker, but long-lasting.
分离总量抑制和增加了工人效应:一个前转型国家的案例
研究背景:我们从集合的角度分析了附加工人效应(AWE)和气馁工人效应(DWE)。第一个效应是指随着工资率的下降,劳动力参与度增加。第二种影响是指求职失败的工人决定离开劳动力市场或减少劳动力参与。在我们的分析中,我们以波兰为例,该国劳动力参与率一直很低。本文的目的:虽然以前的研究集中在这两种效应的网络上,但我们的目的是分别和同时分析这两种影响。我们提出了一种分析这两种影响的新方法。我们将其概括并建模为不同冲击的结果:(i)AWE是负工资收入冲击的结果,(ii)DWE是正求职时间冲击的结果。基本假设是,这两种冲击至少对劳动力参与率有短暂影响。然而,我们也跟踪了这些冲击的潜在长期影响,并分析了性别和年龄组对这些冲击的反应。虽然这种方法证明了我们结果的稳健性,但它也提供了敏感性的范围,因为它表明不同劳动力市场群体的AWE和DWE的幅度存在很大差异。方法:我们使用多变量未观察成分模型来提取AWE和DWE,然后我们使用VAR模型,应用符号和排除限制来对潜在的冲击进行建模。我们使用1995年波兰的季度数据?2019年。这些数据大多来自劳动力调查,其余来自波兰统计局。研究结果和附加值:与以前只分析两种效应的净效应的文献相比,我们分别对AWE和DWE进行了建模。与之前的研究结果相反,我们的方法似乎证实了这两种影响同时存在于劳动力市场中,并且这两种效应都会影响劳动力参与率。因此,我们发现这两种影响都是显著的。具体而言,我们表明AWE更强,但只是暂时的;而DWE较弱但持久。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
13.70
自引率
5.90%
发文量
26
审稿时长
24 weeks
期刊介绍: The Oeconomia Copernicana is an academic quarterly journal aimed at academicians, economic policymakers, and students studying finance, accounting, management, and economics. It publishes academic articles on contemporary issues in economics, finance, banking, accounting, and management from various research perspectives. The journal's mission is to publish advanced theoretical and empirical research that contributes to the development of these disciplines and has practical relevance. The journal encourages the use of various research methods, including falsification of conventional understanding, theory building through inductive or qualitative research, first empirical testing of theories, meta-analysis with theoretical implications, constructive replication, and a combination of qualitative, quantitative, field, laboratory, and meta-analytic approaches. While the journal prioritizes comprehensive manuscripts that include methodological-based theoretical and empirical research with implications for policymaking, it also welcomes submissions focused solely on theory or methodology.
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