From Constructive Ambiguities to Structural Contradictions: The Twilight of the Good Friday Agreement?

IF 0.4 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Chris Ó Rálaigh
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The Good Friday Agreement contained a series of constructive ambiguities which were critical to ensuring that it received broad cross-political support. These ambiguities were reflective of the balance of political power of the time. Once institutionalized, they contained an immanent potential to morph in to structural contradictions as the re-balancing of demographic and political power in Ireland moved from latent to manifest status. As the Agreement reaches its 25th anniversary, three outstanding structural contradictions are manifesting, prompted by Brexit and the re-introduction of the ‘Irish question’ in to Irish-British relations. The constitutional status of the North of Ireland, the raison d’etre of statelet, and the inability of the governing institutions to function representationally or effectively have co-joined with a new balance of political power favoring Irish nationalism over Ulster unionism. Consequently, whether or not we are witnessing the twilight of the Good Friday Agreement will be contingent upon the short-medium term political decisions of key political actors, most notably, Ulster unionism. Three probable future developments will be further stasis, institutional reform, or (r)evolutionary constitutional change.
从建设性的模棱两可到结构性的矛盾:耶稣受难日协议的黄昏?
《耶稣受难日协议》包含了一系列建设性的模棱两可之处,这对于确保它得到广泛的跨政治支持至关重要。这些模棱两可的现象反映了当时政治力量的平衡。一旦制度化,随着爱尔兰人口和政治权力的重新平衡从潜在地位转变为明显地位,它们就有演变为结构性矛盾的内在潜力。随着该协议25周年,英国脱欧和爱尔兰-英国关系中重新引入“爱尔兰问题”,三个突出的结构性矛盾正在显现。爱尔兰北部的宪法地位、国家存在的理由以及管理机构无法代表性或有效地运作,都与支持爱尔兰民族主义而非阿尔斯特统一主义的新的政治权力平衡相结合。因此,我们是否正在目睹《耶稣受难日协议》的衰落,将取决于关键政治行为者的中短期政治决定,尤其是阿尔斯特工会主义。三个可能的未来发展将是进一步的停滞,机构改革,或(r)进化的宪法变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Peace Review-A Journal of Social Justice
Peace Review-A Journal of Social Justice INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-
CiteScore
0.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
57
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