Central Asia's Balancing Act

Abstract

C entral Asia is the Asian subregion most directly affected by Russia’s war against Ukraine. It is part of Russia’s “near abroad,” and Moscow feels a special attachment and entitlement to this post-Soviet space. For the Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), the Kremlin’s denial of Ukraine’s sovereignty and Russia’s incorporation of Ukrainian territories is very bad news because it undermines the founding principles of the post-Soviet security and political order—the mutual recognition of each other’s sovereignty and the existing borders at the time of the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991. Will the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Central Asian states be respected by Russia? Kazakhstan is particularly concerned since it shares a long border with Russia, and its northern regions are sometimes claimed to be part of “historical Russia.” This essay examines the position of the Central Asian states relative to the Russia-Ukraine war and the delicate balancing act these states are undertaking between Russia and their other partners. It first looks at how Russia has upset its long-held arrangements with the Central Asian states before turning to assess four policy trends within the region. It then focuses on Kazakhstan, which shares similarities (as well as differences) with Ukraine and has been the most wary and proactive in response to the Russia-Ukraine war.